The phenomenon of El Niño, caused by the abnormal warming of the Pacific Ocean, generates intense rainfall, droughts, desertification, forest fires, and other disasters. These conditions impact the availability of food, promote the spread of diseases, and exacerbate the vulnerability of ecosystems, especially in regions like the Amazon.
Recent research in Brazil revealed the existence of a direct connection between El Niño, drought, and forest fires in the Amazon region. Using satellite imagery and fire monitoring data, experts demonstrated how this phenomenon worsens soil and groundwater dryness, increasing the likelihood of fires.
Between 2004 and 2016, studies identified a significant reduction in humidity at three levels: the first in the surface soil, the second in the tree root zone, and the third in groundwater, with the latter being the most affected.
These reserves take time to recover after consecutive extreme droughts, making vegetation heavily dependent on groundwater, especially in drought conditions exacerbated by El Niño.
### Increase in Fires in the Amazon
In 2023, the Brazilian Amazon recorded 132,211 fire outbreaks until November, according to the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe). These figures are the highest since 2010. Additionally, the Laboratory of Environmental Satellite Applications (LASA) estimated that around 128,000 km² of the Amazon biome burned in 2023, an area comparable to the size of England.
Professor Bruno Conicelli from the University of São Paulo highlighted that while fires in the Amazon are mainly of human origin, intense El Niño events, like those in 2016 and 2023-2024, intensify meteorological and hydrological droughts. These conditions severely affect vegetation, especially trees with shallow roots.
### Fire Risk Index and Early Warning System
Based on these findings, researchers are developing a fire risk index tailored to the Amazon. This system integrates meteorological indicators, such as rainfall, and hydrological indicators, like water availability in soils, rivers, and aquifers. This model could be applied not only to the Amazon but also to other vulnerable ecosystems.
The goal is to create an early warning system capable of identifying critical areas with low groundwater reserves, enabling the activation of preventive measures and reducing the risk of fires.
### Global Implications of El Niño
El Niño alters moisture and temperature patterns worldwide, with its intensity and frequency increasing due to climate change. This highlights the importance of tools like the fire risk index to mitigate the impacts of extreme events associated with this phenomenon.
The results of these studies are essential not only for designing prevention strategies but also for raising awareness about the growing vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climate events. According to researchers, combining satellite data with field observations will further refine the system, providing a key tool for planning and reducing risks in a world increasingly affected by climate change.
### What are the consequences of the El Niño phenomenon?
The El Niño phenomenon has environmental consequences such as droughts, floods, forest fires, and changes in species diversity.
– **Droughts:** In some areas, El Niño causes extreme droughts, such as in southern Asia and Australia, where droughts are abnormally long.
– **Floods:** El Niño causes floods in eastern regions of Africa, while in South America, it brings intense rains that can lead to losses in fishing.
– **Forest Fires:** El Niño can trigger forest fires.
– **Changes in Species Diversity:** This phenomenon can affect plant germination and animal reproduction, leading to a decrease in plant and animal diversity, as well as the decline or extinction of species unable to adapt quickly to new climate conditions.
– **Other Effects:** El Niño can cause storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and also affect atmospheric circulation and respiratory diseases, flu viruses, and epidemics.
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