A recent study found that global warming will increase wildfires. As one of the most direct consequences, it could result in more than 300,000 deaths by 2100.
The research was conducted by scientists from the University of Science and Technology of China. It warns that climate change could drastically increase the frequency of urban fires in the coming decades.
Alarming Projection: Global Warming Will Increase Wildfires
The study revealed that by 2100, fires could result in 335,000 deaths and over a million fire-related injuries.
The team of scientists analyzed the number of fires that could occur in 2847 cities in 20 countries over the next 75 years. They concluded that disasters caused by outdoor fires could increase by 22.2%.
In this context, they pointed out that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the consequences could be devastating.
In the present day, fires cause approximately 50,000 deaths and 170,000 injuries worldwide each year. Now, researchers seek to understand how these figures could change in a context of rising global temperatures.
“We found that global warming could lead to an unexpectedly high number of fire victims,” the study published in the journal Nature Cities states.
In this regard, they emphasized that most studies conducted so far focus on analyzing forest fires, while little attention is given to those that occur in cities.
“Even though the latter usually cause more direct fire victims,” the experts assert. “Trends in the frequency of urban fires due to global warming remain unknown,” they warn.
Study Details
To investigate this issue, the team of scientists created a global fire database, compiling information from urban fire departments in 2847 cities in 20 countries for the period 2011-2020.
They classified fires into three types: building fires, vehicle fires, and open space fires. They then analyzed how global warming could influence the recurrence of each category.
As a conclusion, they deduced that under high emission scenarios, by the year 2100, vehicle fires could increase by 11.6%, open space fires by 22.2%, while building fires could decrease by 4.6%.
Most Affected Countries
According to the same study, some regions would be much more affected than others. “The situation in some countries, such as New Zealand and the United Kingdom, is considerably worse, showing an increase of over 40%,” they stated.
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