A new study led by the University of Bristol warns that some forms of marine life could become extinct in the next century due to the impact of anthropogenic global warming.
Historical comparison and future of plankton
For the first time, researchers compared how plankton responded during the last substantial warming of the Earth with what could happen by the end of this century.
The study focused on a calcifying marine zooplankton called foraminifera, using a new ecology and climate model to analyze its behavior during the last Ice Age, about 21,000 years ago, and how it could behave in the future.
Dr. Rui Ying, who led the project, pointed out: “The past is often considered key to understanding how the world could be in the future. Geological records showed that plankton moved away from warmer oceans to survive.” However, the current model showed that plankton could not keep up with the current rates of temperature increase, which could lead to the demise of these valuable organisms.
Impact of global warming on marine life
The results are alarming: even with the most conservative climate projections of a 2°C increase, plankton cannot adapt quickly enough to match the much faster rate of warming we are currently experiencing. This not only affects plankton but also endangers marine life that depends on these tiny organisms for food.
“Plankton is the lifeblood of the oceans, as it underpins the marine food web and carbon storage. If their existence is threatened, it will pose an unprecedented threat, disrupting the entire marine ecosystem with devastating consequences for marine life and the supply of human food,” Ying stated.
Limits to global warming and necessary actions
In December 2015, 196 countries signed the Paris Agreement, agreeing to limit the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, preferably to 1.5°C. However, warming could reach 3.1°C if governments do not act to reduce carbon emissions, warns the UN.
Daniela Schmidt, professor of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol, stated: “This work highlights the significant risks posed by incredibly rapid climate and environmental changes. If these worrying trends worsen, there will be very real consequences for our ecosystems and people’s livelihoods, including fishing communities. Therefore, the message is clear: all nations must step up efforts to keep global warming to a minimum.”
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