The environmental crisis in the Mediterranean is rapidly intensifying due to factors such as population growth, pollution, climate change, and uncontrolled human activity. According to the recent report MED 2050 by Plan Bleu, what was previously projected as warming by the end of the century could now happen before 2050. This report warns of possible “local collapses” if urgent and disruptive measures are not taken.
The Plan Bleu, created by France in 1977 and linked to the Action Plan for the Mediterranean (PAM) of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), is responsible for analyzing the state of the Mediterranean to inform governments and civil society. Its third foresight report, MED 2050, concludes that, without significant changes, the Mediterranean will undergo an alarming ecosystemic transformation and serious degradation of habitability conditions by 2050.
## A worrisome and likely scenario
Of the six proposed scenarios, the most pessimistic is also the most likely:
– **Accelerated warming**: Increase of 2.3°C by 2050, surpassing the 1.5°C limit.
– **Rising sea levels**: 40-centimeter increase.
– **Extreme events**: Increased frequency of droughts, floods, and heatwaves.
– **Biodiversity loss**: Disappearance of 20% of native species, proliferation of jellyfish, and destruction of ecosystems such as seagrass meadows and coral reefs.
– **Widespread water scarcity**: Almost the entire population of the basin will suffer from water shortages due to droughts.
On the other hand, a population growth of 20-30% is projected, with 630-690 million inhabitants in the region, with more than half concentrated in coastal cities, increasing pressure on resources.
## Urgent and disruptive solutions for the Mediterranean
The Plan Bleu, designed to study the conditions of the Mediterranean, warns that gradual measures or waiting for the situation to improve on its own will not be sufficient. Transformative solutions must be implemented to ensure the region’s resilience and avoid points of no return in marine ecosystems.
Among the proposals is granting the Mediterranean the status of “global common good,” which would allow managing the sea and its hydrographic basins as a unique ecosystem. This initiative would involve the creation of a public-private structure to coordinate efforts and turn the Mediterranean into a “solutions laboratory” replicable in other regions of the world.
The report emphasizes that inaction could trigger massive migrations and economic marginalization in the region. Therefore, international mobilization and integrated governance of the Mediterranean are essential to reverse this trajectory. According to experts, protecting the Mediterranean is not only crucial for the region but also a model for addressing global environmental challenges.
## Which countries does the Mediterranean Sea cover?
The Mediterranean Sea is an intercontinental sea located between Europe, Africa, and Asia. It connects to the Atlantic Ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar and to the Red Sea through the Suez Canal. This sea covers the coasts of 23 countries:
Albania, Algeria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, Egypt, Slovenia, Spain, France, Greece.
Other countries with coastlines on the Mediterranean are:
Iran, Israel, Italy, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Malta, Morocco, Portugal, and Syria.
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