A report by scientists from the University of Science and Technology of China warns that climate change could significantly increase the frequency of urban fires in the coming decades.
The research revealed that by the year 2100, fires could cause 335,000 deaths and over a million fire-related injuries.
The team analyzed the projected number of fires in 2,847 cities in 20 countries over the next 75 years and concluded that disasters caused by outdoor fires could increase by 22.2%. Experts pointed out that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the consequences would be devastating.
Currently, fires cause around 50,000 deaths and 170,000 injuries annually worldwide. Now, researchers aim to understand how these figures could vary in a context of rising global temperatures.
Study Details and Regional Projections
Specialists published their findings in the journal Nature Cities, highlighting that most previous studies focused on forest fires, leaving urban fires in the background. According to experts, current analyses prioritize vegetation fires over urban fires, even though the latter usually cause more direct victims.
To conduct the study, the team created a global database on fires, gathering information from fire departments in 2,847 cities in 20 countries during the 2011-2020 period.
Fires were classified into three types: fires in buildings, in vehicles, and outdoor fires. Researchers analyzed how global warming could influence the recurrence of each category.
The analysis projects that under a high emissions scenario by 2100, vehicle fires could increase by 11.6%, outdoor fires by 22.2%, while building fires could decrease by 4.6%.
Regions Most Affected by Urban Fires
According to the study, some regions would be more affected than others. “The situation in countries like New Zealand and the United Kingdom is considerably worse, showing an increase of over 40%,” the researchers noted.
Under the high emissions scenario, it is estimated that building fires in Great Britain could increase by around 10%, vehicle fires by almost 15%, and outdoor fires by over 20%.
The researchers hope that these findings will help improve climate change mitigation strategies globally. “This study can serve as a starting point for developing climate-resilient strategies, such as updating fire standards, mitigating human impacts, improving fuel management, and increasing vehicle reliability,” they concluded.
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