The disturbances caused by climate change result in record levels of disorders, diseases, and misery to millions of people in Europe every year. Widespread floods and intense heatwaves are part of a new normality to which countries must adapt quickly, resiliently, and as a priority: premature deaths.
The future is very clear: increasingly milder winters and extreme heat stress throughout Europe, with prolonged summers from June to September/October, marked by recurring heatwaves, forest fires, droughts, desertification, and floods.
Risks and Citizen Preparedness
Experts warn that one of the concerns arises from the fact that many citizens and some healthcare professionals still perceive ‘low risk’ regarding the dangers of heatwaves. Therefore, it is essential that early warning systems are designed to raise awareness about the reality and imminence of these extreme weather events and promote citizen preparedness.
The fact that climate change kills is not new. Various extreme weather events with fatal outcomes have been attributed to global warming with rigorous scientific studies showing a cause-and-effect relationship.
Apart from these natural disasters, the increase in the global average temperature is also a threat to many people’s lives.
Barcelona: highest risk level for premature deaths
A new international computational modeling study quantifies the increase in this danger in European cities: by the end of this century, deaths due to temperatures could increase by 50%, adding up to a total of 2.3 million.
Organizations and media often disseminate varied figures on the mortality risk from climate change resulting from various scientific studies.
The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected an increase of 250,000 premature deaths annually by 2050 due to heat, malnutrition, and diseases such as malaria or diarrhea.
A 2024 report from World Weather Attribution accounted for over half a million deaths in the last two decades due to extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change.
Increase in mortality from extreme temperatures
Currently, cold causes many more deaths than heat: a 2024 study co-led by Spaniards David García-León and Juan-Carlos Ciscar, from the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC), estimated 407,000 current deaths in Europe each year due to temperatures; of these, around 363,500 are due to cold and only 43,700 to excessive heat.
However, this will change and worsen if drastic cuts are not made to greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) responsible for climate change. A new study predicts the evolution of temperature-related mortality in 854 cities across 30 countries on the continent from 2015 to 2099.
According to the results published in Nature Medicine, deaths from cold will decrease with the rise in temperatures, but those due to heat will skyrocket, resulting in a 50% net increase in mortality from this cause, with an excess of deaths totaling 2,345,410 by the end of the century.
Regional Disparities in Europe
Not all European regions will be equally affected. In the British Isles and Scandinavian countries, rising temperatures will reduce cold-related deaths, resulting in a net decrease in mortality in those areas.
In contrast, the Mediterranean, Central Europe, and the Balkans are the most vulnerable areas to the growth of heat-related deaths. Spain would see its temperature-related mortality increase by around 80%, surpassing 50% of the European total.
Among European cities, Barcelona stands out negatively, with an excess mortality of 246,082, well above the second most affected city, Rome, with 147,738. Madrid would be the fourth in mortality increase, with 129,716, and Valencia would rank seventh, with 67,519 additional accumulated deaths.
Adaptation and Mitigation Measures
The study’s results “debunk theories about beneficial effects of climate change,” says the study’s lead author, Antonio Gasparrini, from LSHTM. The most favorable scenarios suggest that at least two-thirds of deaths could be avoided with a significant reduction in GHG emissions.
In the absence of these reductions, no heat adaptation measure will prevent a notable increase in mortality.
Adaptation actions, such as air conditioning, traffic reduction, or the expansion of green areas, could reduce the risk by up to 50%, but this would not reverse the increase in mortality in the worst-case scenarios, still resulting in an excess of 268,000 deaths. “By following a more sustainable path, we could prevent millions of deaths before the end of the century,” concludes Masselot.
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