In 2024, the world is on track to reach a record global temperature. Almost certainly, it will be the warmest ever recorded and the first to exceed 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era.
This was announced on Thursday by the European observatory Copernicus. The data indicates that it is even “likely” that the warming will reach 1.55°C this year.
Record global temperature for 2024: what Copernicus said
“After ten months of the year 2024, it is now almost certain that 2024 will be the warmest year ever recorded and the first year with more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels,” warned Samantha Burgess.
2024 will set a new record for global temperature.
The deputy director of Copernicus’ climate change service referred to the alarming estimates.
“This marks a new stage in global temperature records and should serve as a trigger to increase ambition at the next climate change conference, COP29,” she said.
The conference begins in Baku on November 11. That summit in the capital of Azerbaijan will focus on the complex task of agreeing on a new funding target. This should enable developing countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change.
The meetings will take place under the shadow of the upcoming return to the White House of Donald Trump, who in the past has called climate change a “hoax”.
Copernicus data indicates that last month was the second warmest October ever recorded. It is only behind that of 2023, with an average temperature of 15.25°C.
This represents 1.65°C more than the average between 1850-1900 when the widespread use of fossil fuels had not yet significantly warmed the atmosphere and oceans.
It is also the 15th month out of the last 16 in which the global average temperature has exceeded this 1.5°C threshold.
Why the 1.5°C threshold is important
This symbolic figure corresponds to the most ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, which aims to limit warming well below 2°C and to continue efforts to not exceed 1.5°C.
But this goal refers to long-term climate trends: to consider the threshold exceeded, the global temperature average must be above 1.5°C for 20 or 30 years.
Warnings of “lethal consequences”
According to UN data, the world is on track to exceed this limit that would prevent the most catastrophic effects of climate change such as droughts, heatwaves, or torrential rains.
The extreme consequences of global warming.
If current policies are maintained, the planet is heading towards a “catastrophic” warming of 3.1°C in this century, according to the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).
Even considering all the improvement promises from different countries, the global average temperature would increase by 2.6°C, they warned.
The lethal effects were dramatically illustrated during the severe floods in eastern Spain following the passage of the Dana, for example. They left more than 200 dead, mostly in the province of Valencia.
Scientists agree that in most parts of the planet, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change.
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