A group of researchers from Princeton, Carleton, and Rutgers-New Brunswick universities has questioned the use of the metaphor “tipping point” to describe the risks of climate change.
They argue that, while it was useful some years ago to refer to major changes in the climate system, it now generates confusion and pessimism, hindering the decision-making process. Their conclusions were published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
## Problems with the “Tipping Point” Metaphor
The term “tipping point” refers to a critical threshold where a small change can cause a significant and irreversible transformation of the entire system.
However, the study’s authors point out that this concept can give a false sense of scientific precision and trigger a “false alarm” effect if catastrophic results do not occur immediately after crossing those thresholds, damaging the credibility of future messages.
## Response to Perceived Risk
In risk communication, factors such as the social environment, subjectivity, self-perception, and threat perception play a crucial role. The authors emphasize that the public tends to respond better to immediate and tangible threats, such as wildfires or floods, rather than abstract concepts like tipping points.
## Importance of Degree Fractions
Professor Robert Kopp emphasized that every fraction of a degree of warming matters. Although reaching a 1.5°C increase in global temperature is a significant milestone, it is crucial to continue reducing emissions even if this threshold is crossed. The fight against climate change should not end when crossing a “tipping point” but should instead intensify.
The study suggests that messages about climate risks should be accurate and motivating, not alarmist.
It is essential to separate climate policy goals, such as the 1.5°C warming limit, from tipping points. Elisabeth Gilmore highlights that continuing to reduce emissions is essential, even if that symbolic limit is exceeded.
## Future Perspectives on Climate and Earth
The research proposes that messages about climate risks should focus on mitigating the damages that are already happening, without falling into fatalism or despair invoked by talking about no tipping points.
The warmer the Earth gets, the greater the need to rapidly reduce emissions and expand efforts to build resilience and adapt to a warmer planet.
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