At this pace, the glaciers of the Patagonia could completely disappear in the next 250 years. This is warned by a recent study published in Nature Communications, which links the accelerated glacial retreat with profound changes in global atmospheric circulation.
During the last two decades, satellites have recorded a constant loss of mass in the Patagonian glaciers, which currently contribute around 0.07 mm annually to sea-level rise. Although this figure may seem small, its accumulation and progressive acceleration represent a concrete global threat.
The main cause: the displacement towards the poles of subtropical high-pressure systems, a phenomenon driven by global warming that brings warm air to the region, intensifying melting.
Located in the southern Andes, Patagonia hosts the second largest ice extension in the southern hemisphere, surpassed only by Antarctica. Thanks to its geography, it receives up to 15 meters of snow per year, especially on its western flank, which historically kept its glaciers in balance.
## Warmer Air, Less Resistant Ice
That balance was broken. The glaciers, many of which reach sea level, are now facing increasingly warmer summers that accelerate melting. The resulting water flows directly into the ocean, gradually raising its level.
Since 1940, the region has lost more than 25% of its ice volume, which has already raised the global sea level by 3.7 millimeters. This change not only transforms the Patagonian landscape but also affects the communities that depend on meltwater.
A team of researchers from universities in Belgium and the Netherlands refined a regional climate model to accurately estimate the glacier mass balance. By using a resolution of 500 meters — ten times more precise than previous models — they managed to capture the narrowest glacier tongues and their accelerated runoff.
## Increasing Runoff, Stable Snowfalls
Contrary to what might be supposed, snowfalls have not decreased since the mid-20th century. What has increased is surface runoff: more ice melts and flows into the sea.
This phenomenon is exacerbated by the melting of firn, a layer of porous snow that, when disappearing, exposes darker bare ice. This absorbs more solar radiation, amplifying melting in a dangerous cycle.
Additionally, the study identifies a background climate pattern: the advance of subtropical high-pressure systems towards the south, a phenomenon associated with global warming, which channels even more warm air towards Patagonia.
## Global and Local Impacts
If the total disappearance of the Patagonian glaciers materializes, the sea level could rise by an additional centimeter. This would not only affect distant coastal regions but also the Andean populations that depend on meltwater for consumption, irrigation, and energy.
The future of the glacial Patagonia is at stake. And with it, the climatic balance of a key region for the biodiversity and ecosystems of the southern hemisphere.
## Alarming Melting: Glaciers lose 273 billion tons per year
A recent study analyzing glaciers identified concerning data on melting. Since 2000, the sea level has risen by 1.8 cm, and glaciers are the second largest contributor to this.
In that sense, these ice reserves are disappearing more rapidly than any other space on the planet.
During the last 25 years, glaciers lost 18% more ice than the Greenland ice sheet and more than double the amount lost in Antarctica.
Source: INVDES.
