Amphibians in the Amazon will be especially affected by the drought caused by climate change.
A study published in the prestigious scientific journal Nature Climate Change states that territories worldwide that constitute the habitats of terrestrial and arboreal amphibians could be threatened up to 36% of their extension due to the decrease in water availability and the increase in temperatures.
In Brazil, specifically in the Amazon rainforest, the world’s greatest diversity of these animals is found. This is the habitat of some of the most threatened species, as Amazonian ecosystems are highly vulnerable and at risk.
### Amphibians at risk in the Amazon
An international team of scientists has conducted the most comprehensive study on the predicted effects on anuran amphibians (frogs and toads) due to the combination of increased droughts and global warming. This work has been published in Nature Climate Change.
“The Amazon and the Atlantic Forest are the areas with the highest number of species and the highest probabilities of an increase in the frequency and intensity of drought events. This will affect the physiology and behavior of countless species. These biomes are among the regions of the planet with the greatest diversity of amphibians in the world, with many endemic species,” says Rafael Bovo, a researcher at the University of California, Riverside, and one of the study’s authors.
Most of the data, previously unpublished in science, was collected by Bovo during research in Brazil, carried out with a scholarship from FAPESP, both during his Ph.D. at the Institute of Biosciences of São Paulo State University (IB-Unesp) in Rio Claro, and during his postdoctoral studies at the Biosciences Institute of the University of São Paulo (IB-USP).
### Impact of droughts and global warming
Forecasts indicate that between 6.6% and 33.6% of anuran habitats will become drier between 2080 and 2100, depending on greenhouse gas emissions. In a moderate emissions scenario, with a 2°C temperature increase, 15.4% of these territories would be exposed to more droughts.
In a high emissions scenario by the end of the century, with a warming of up to 4°C, over a third (36%) of these habitats would be subjected to devastating droughts for anuran amphibians, a group particularly sensitive to water loss due to their thin and permeable skin.
In practice, in a future 4°C warmer, amphibians in the Amazon, Central America, Chile, northern United States, and the European Mediterranean would experience over four additional months per year of increased drought frequency.
Even a 2°C warming would increase the duration of droughts by one to four consecutive months per year in much of the Americas, Europe, southern and central Africa, and southern Australia.
### Adaptation strategies for amphibians
Researchers note that in some arid areas, water loss in toads and frogs could double due to the combination of droughts and global warming. This could significantly reduce the activity time of these animals, affecting their feeding and search for reproductive partners, directly impacting the viability of their populations.
Biophysical simulations indicated that in the tropical part of the planet, including the Amazon and the Atlantic Forest, activity time would decrease in all climatic scenarios throughout the year.
“In a warmer and drier environment, amphibians will reduce the time outside their shelters to avoid heat and aridity, reducing their feeding and search for partners, affecting the viability of populations,” adds Bovo.
### Future of amphibians
There are only three solutions for amphibians: migrate, adapt, or become extinct. Researchers seek to better understand which species could adjust their physiology and behavior in their lifetime or over generations to survive these profound changes and predict what biodiversity will remain at the end of the century.
With this data, it will be possible to refine models forecasting local or regional extinctions of species, which can serve as a reference for other groups sensitive to temperature rise and water availability.
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