To avoid the scarcity of rare metals such as cobalt and lithium, essential in the energy transition, recycling will be crucial, as experts warn.
From Peru to France, passing through the United States, countries are claiming sovereignty over these strategic metals.
However, China has extended its hegemony in production and refining, controlling between 35% and 70% of refining capacities, according to former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.
Scarcity of Rare Metals and Prices
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned of the risk of supply tensions and a possible shortage of copper or lithium, essential for low-carbon technologies. Although lithium, nickel, and cobalt prices fell in 2023, this could slow down the necessary mining investments.
Solutions and Recycling
All states are promoting mining. However, due to high costs and the time to develop projects, recycling is considered a more realistic solution. The circularity of metals could meet up to 50% of global demand in the long term, according to Draghi.
A recycling industry could represent between 10% and 15% of the GDP of developed countries in about fifteen years, with the support of banks and states.
Future of Metal Recycling
The American think tank RMI estimates that the peak of mining exploitation for strategic minerals destined for batteries should occur by the mid-2030s.
With improved recycling techniques, the demand for virgin minerals could be zero by 2040, meeting the market needs for electric batteries without the need for further extraction.
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