According to the Renewables 2025 report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global renewable electricity generation capacity —currently at 4.4 terawatts— will double in five years, with 4.6 additional terawatts installed by 2030.
This growth far exceeds the previous forecasts of the Agency itself, historically conservative.
Solar Photovoltaic: Undisputed Leader of Growth
Solar photovoltaic will account for 80% of the new installed capacity thanks to its low costs and administrative agility. It is consolidated as the most competitive technology for new generation in most countries. Its expansion is favored by:
- Low and stable costs
- Streamlining of administrative authorizations
- Growth of residential and corporate self-consumption
Following in growth are wind energy, hydraulic energy, bioenergy, and geothermal energy, the latter with historic growth in markets such as the U.S., Japan, Indonesia, and emerging economies.
Structural Challenges and Technological Opportunities
Storage, networks, and flexibility: keys to integrating more renewables,
Variable technologies like solar and wind face the challenge of storage. In low demand scenarios, solar parks or wind turbines must be shut down.
The solution: hydraulic pumping, which allows storing excess energy and releasing it when the system requires it. The IEA foresees that this technology will grow 80% faster than in the previous five-year period.
“The integration challenge is sparking interest in flexibility solutions and more robust networks,” the report notes.
Emerging Markets and More Ambitious Policies
In regions like Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, technological competitiveness combines with more favorable regulatory frameworks, accelerating growth.
India is on track to become the second largest renewable market in the world, with 500 GW projected by 2030.
Investment, Confidence, and Key Players
PPAs, utilities, and merchant parks will drive 30% of global growth.
Corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs), utilities, and merchant parks will be responsible for one-third of global renewable growth, double what was projected in 2024.
Business confidence in the sector remains strong, although offshore wind faces obstacles due to rising costs and political changes.
Risks and Supply Chain Concentration
China will continue to dominate the production of key components until 2030.
The IEA warns that dependence on China in critical segments of the solar and wind chain will remain above 90%, representing a risk to global supply security.
Renewables in Transport and Heat: Modest but Relevant Advances
The renewable share will grow from 4% to 6% in transport and from 14% to 18% in thermal energy.
The impetus will come from:
- Electric vehicles in Europe and China
- Biofuels in Brazil, India, and Indonesia
- Renewable heating and industrial heat in homes and factories
