San Juan is on alert due to the drought expected for the 2025-2026 cycle, with worrying projections that require thinking about water conservation strategies.
The figures were presented by the province’s Department of Hydraulics, and the water forecast for the October 2025-September 2026 cycle looks concerning.
During this time, the San Juan River would deliver just 950 cubic hectometers of water, 24% less than the previous period.
This abrupt drop confirms that the province will go through a very dry water year, with critical challenges for agriculture, human consumption, and electricity generation.
Alert for drought in San Juan: comparison with previous cycles
During the 2024-2025 cycle, the spill reached 1,250 hm³, within the annual average.
However, for the new period, authorities estimate an average flow of 950 hm³, with a range oscillating between a minimum of 761 hm³ and a maximum of 1,139 hm³.
The current forecast is well below the historical average recorded since 1909, which is 1,933 hm³.
Even considering the last 15 or 20 years, when the average flow was around 1,500 hm³, the projection for this cycle is considerably lower.
Regarding the Jáchal River, the second most important water course in the province, a flow of between 109 and 190 hm³ is estimated for this period.
Alert for drought in San Juan: impact and challenges
The 24% reduction in the flow of the San Juan River poses significant challenges for sectors dependent on the water resource:
- agriculture
- human consumption
- electricity generation
Although the value of 950 hm³ is considered within acceptable parameters, the decrease could affect availability for agricultural irrigation if the runoff remains near the minimum forecast.
Authorities hope these data will allow various sectors to plan strategies for efficient distribution and rational use of water.
Each cubic hectometer equals one million cubic meters of water.
Considering this, the 300 hm³ difference from the previous year represents a significant amount of water for the province.
The provincial government emphasizes that water is essential for development and permeates every aspect of life in this province that built an oasis in the middle of the desert.
The challenge is to deepen awareness of the responsible use of the resource and ensure that every drop fulfills its purpose in a context of increasing scarcity.
How water projections are made
The Secretary of Water Resources of San Juan, David Devia, highlighted the precision of the method used.
“Last year we were practically within that margin. The forecast was 1,250 hm³ and the actual result was 1,248 hm³,” he reported.
Then, Devia detailed that the forecast combines satellite technology with mountain surveys conducted by specialized teams from the Department of Hydraulics.
“Unlike other methodologies based solely on remote sensors, we also conduct mountain surveys, which provides greater precision,” the official noted during an interview with La Mil 20.
Thus, to obtain this data, technicians evaluated the information from the annual survey along with data from snow-meteorological stations and available historical records.
“A variation of up to 10% in the forecast is considered excellent,” Devia stated, which gives confidence in the projections made.
