Faced with the threat of the El Niño phenomenon, Guatemala is facing the possibility of an extreme drought this year. Meteorological services have warned about the high risk Central America faces due to this climate event.
Guatemala and the extreme drought: a challenge due to El Niño
Projections indicate a significant reduction in rainfall from June to August, especially affecting the most vulnerable agricultural areas, where they depend on rainfall for their crops.
The Dry Corridor, one of the regions historically most affected by water scarcity, could suffer a severe impact. High temperatures and lack of rain increase the risk of forest fires and endanger water and food resources.
With a deficit of up to 300 millimeters of rain expected, the food security of thousands of rural families is at risk. Additionally, the heat intensifies the threat of fires, with arid soils that could worsen the situation.
The El Niño event could impact 18 of the country’s 22 departments, according to the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology, and Hydrology (Insivumeh), which estimates an 88% probability of its impact.
The rainfall deficit would affect the cycle of essential crops and the availability of water resources, as has already been observed in previous El Niño episodes.
The Dry Corridor is once again emerging as one of the most critical areas due to its dependence on subsistence crops such as corn and beans. Rural families could face forced migrations if conditions worsen.
High temperatures also pose a risk for forest fires, with more than a thousand outbreaks extinguished this year. Dry conditions facilitate the spread of fire, threatening biodiversity and ecosystems.
Guatemala has activated emergency protocols to face the drought and possible subsequent intense rains. Shelters and specialized brigades have been prepared to mitigate the effects of climate disasters.
Climate change exacerbates the country’s vulnerability, whose economy largely depends on agriculture. Experts call for improving early warning systems and sustainable water management to increase resilience.
The threat of El Niño places Guatemala in a complicated climate scenario. Preventive measures and prompt response will be crucial to minimize the economic and social impact of the extreme drought.
