The United Kingdom Meteorological Office (Met Office) anticipates that next year, 2026, will mark the fourth consecutive year in which the global surface temperature will exceed 1.4 °C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).
The central forecast points to an increase of 1.46 °C, slightly lower than the record of 1.55 °C recorded in 2024, but still within the highest values ever observed.
An increasingly warmer planet
Met Office considers it “likely” that 2026 will rank among the four warmest years on record, only behind 2024. The main cause of this increase is the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Adam Scaife, head of the global forecasting team, explained that “the last three years have exceeded 1.4 °C and we expect 2026 to be the fourth consecutive. Before this sudden increase, the global temperature had never surpassed 1.3 °C.”
The estimated range for 2026 is between 1.34 °C and 1.58 °C, with an average of 1.46 °C above the pre-industrial period.
The Paris Agreement threshold
In 2024, a temporary exceedance of 1.5 °C was recorded for the first time, and forecasts suggest it could be repeated in 2026. According to Nick Dunstone, a Met Office researcher, this shows how quickly the world is approaching the 1.5 °C target set in the Paris Agreement.
The scientific community warns that exceeding this limit could trigger more severe climate impacts, extreme weather events, and a reduction in adaptation options. Every fraction of a degree that can be avoided is crucial to minimize risks.
Data from WMO and the Arctic
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimated that the current level of global warming is 1.37 °C above the 1850-1900 average, based on observations from the last decade and projections for 2015-2034.
The Arctic clearly reflects this trend: between October 2024 and September 2025, the warmest temperature since 1900 was recorded, and the last ten years have been the least cold ever documented in the region.
The 20th edition of the Arctic Report Card, led by the U.S. agency NOAA, brought together 112 scientists from 14 countries and confirmed that the fall of 2024 and the winter of 2025 were the warmest of the entire historical series. Additionally, since 2006, the annual temperature in the Arctic has increased at more than twice the global rate.
Projections for 2026 confirm that the planet continues on a path of accelerated warming, with the Arctic as the most vulnerable region. Scientific evidence underscores the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and implementing adaptation measures to face an increasingly extreme scenario.
