Global warming continues its escalation. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 70% chance that the average global temperature will exceed 1.5 °C between 2025 and 2029, compared to pre-industrial levels.
The warning is based on data from ten international climate centers, confirming the upward trend after the temperature records of 2023 and 2024. The UK Met Office contributed to the report.
The 1.5 °C limit was set as an optimistic goal in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Exceeding it implies opening the door to increasingly intense and frequent extreme events, with devastating impacts on people and ecosystems.
The burning of fossil fuels remains the main driver of this temperature increase, while CO₂ emissions have not decreased globally and consistently.
The average global temperature has risen again.
Closer to a climate tipping point
The current warming, estimated between 1.39 °C and 1.44 °C, is the result of the average temperatures between 2015 and 2034. Experts warn that the 2 °C barrier could be reached sooner than expected if urgent measures are not taken.
Although the probability of exceeding 2 °C in the next five years is low (1%), the unexpected has already happened: in 2024, the 1.5 °C threshold was crossed for the first time in a year.
Every tenth of a degree intensifies phenomena such as heatwaves, prolonged droughts, accelerated melting, and extreme rainfall. The consequences are already being felt in countries like China, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, and Canada.
In this context, scientists like Friederike Otto warn that continuing to rely on oil, gas, and coal is “absolutely crazy”. The climate crisis is no longer a future possibility: it is a current reality.
The Arctic, the Amazon, and beyond: a changing map
The WMO also projects significant regional changes. The Arctic will continue to warm faster than the rest of the planet, with a decrease in ice in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk seas.
In contrast, areas such as the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia will experience increased humidity. South Asia will also receive more rainfall than usual, which could create new imbalances.
The Amazon basin will face drier conditions, increasing the risk of fires and biodiversity loss. Everything points to a more extreme and erratic climate that challenges human and environmental adaptation capacity.
Faced with this reality, scientists urge quick action: abandoning fossil fuels, investing in clean energy, and strengthening climate justice are urgent steps to avoid irreversible consequences.
The Arctic is an example of what happens with the increase in the average global temperature.
The cost of further warming the planet
If the average global temperature continues to rise, extreme weather events will become more frequent and intense. An increase in heatwaves, wildfires, hurricanes, floods, and droughts is expected, affecting both urban and rural areas.
The temperature increase will also have a direct impact on human health. Respiratory and cardiovascular diseases could worsen, while the spread of vectors such as mosquitoes will increase the spread of diseases like dengue, Zika, or malaria.
In ecological terms, many species will not be able to adapt to the accelerated changes, leading to mass extinctions and the breakdown of entire ecosystems. The oceans will suffer from increased acidification and loss of marine biodiversity.
Additionally, millions of people could be forced to leave their homes due to rising sea levels or loss of natural resources, creating new humanitarian crises. Global warming is not just an environmental problem, but a global social and economic challenge.
