A scientific study identified which bat species concentrate the greatest potential to trigger the next epidemic.
The research, published in Communications Biology and led by Caroline A. Cummings, analyzed hundreds of mammals, including bats, and concluded that the epidemic risk is not evenly distributed.
In reality, it is concentrated in specific evolutionary groups capable of harboring dangerous viruses for humans.
The risk of the “next epidemic” is not in all bats
The researchers clarified that not all bats pose the threat of a potential epidemic.
The study analyzed nearly 900 mammal species and more than a hundred known viruses.
Then, the scientists placed that information on the evolutionary tree of mammals and discovered a revealing pattern.
The entire order of bats does not stand out as particularly dangerous. However, certain branches do concentrate higher values of what the researchers called “viral epidemic potential”.
This concept encompasses viruses capable of causing severe diseases, easily transmitting between humans, and generating a high death toll.
It should be noted that this is not an immediate threat, but the study serves to identify where it is necessary to monitor closely.
Epidemic alert: bat species under scientific scrutiny
Among the groups identified with the highest risk for a next epidemic are:
- Horseshoe bats (family Rhinolophidae)
- Insectivorous bats of the family Vespertilionidae
- Species of the families Molossidae and Emballonuridae
These are common species, present in many countries and, in some cases, accustomed to living near human constructions.
This proximity increases the chances of contact between humans and bats and, therefore, the risk of transmission and potential epidemic.
The scientists highlighted that bats harbor a great viral diversity.
In many cases, they tolerate infections without showing severe symptoms due to adaptations of their immune system and their evolutionary history.
However, this does not imply that all function the same. Each family maintains different relationships with the viruses they carry.
The areas of highest risk on the planet
The study revealed that the risk increases when these species coincide with areas heavily transformed by human activity.
By overlaying the distribution of bats with high epidemic potential with human impact maps, specific regions of concern emerged.
The identified areas include parts of Central America, the coast of South America, regions of equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia.
In these places, the interaction between wildlife and human populations is more intense.
Smart surveillance instead of alarm
The work proposed to stop thinking about general risks of epidemics from bats and to opt for more refined surveillance.
Instead of trying to sample all species, something unrealistic, public health programs can focus on specific groups.
The study also served to dismantle simplistic fears. Pursuing or eliminating bat colonies does not really reduce the risk of epidemic and, in some cases, worsens it.
This is because the alteration of stable refuges can increase the stress of the animals and favor the circulation of viruses.
According to the study led by Cummings, the true decisive factor is not the bat itself, but how and where we interact with it.
Therefore, protecting habitats, reducing pressure on ecosystems, and monitoring intelligently is more effective.
It should be noted that bats perform functions key to agriculture and the natural balance.
Thus, preventing a next epidemic requires understanding the real risk of bats and other species, and not generating unnecessary panic towards these animals essential for biodiversity.
