Researchers from the Institute of Economic Analysis (IAE) of the CSIC developed CADI (Climate-Driven Agricultural Decline Index), a tool that projects how the maximum production capacity of farmland for food will evolve until the end of the century.
With a resolution of 10×10 km, it estimates the loss of productivity attributable exclusively to climate, without considering adaptation measures such as new crops or technological improvements.
Global Results
- Between 1981-2000 and 2001-2020, 16% of farmland lost more than 10% of its productive potential.
- The tropical regions concentrate the greatest losses.
- The high latitudes (Scandinavia, Finland, Scotland, Alps) show increases in productivity, although modest in absolute terms.
- Currently, 15% of the world’s population lives in areas that have already lost at least 5% of their productive potential.
Projections towards Mid-Century
In a medium-high warming scenario (+2.1 ºC):
- Almost 49% of the world’s population could live between 2041 and 2060 in regions with declining productive capacity.
- Only 5% of tropical agricultural lands concentrate 35% of global losses.
- A quarter of the countries will accumulate between 85% and 90% of global losses.
Impact in Spain
According to Hannes Mueller, researcher at IAE-CSIC:
- The Cantabrian coast, Galicia, and the Pyrenees will increase their productivity.
- The interior and central-eastern peninsula will lose capacity, with areas of severe losses. This pattern reproduces on a small scale the global trend: the north gains, the south loses.
Distributional Tensions
Researchers warn that even in countries with productivity gains, internal conflicts will arise:
- Agriculture shifts to new areas.
- Reallocation of land, water, and investment is required.
- The most vulnerable countries are those that have historically contributed the least to CO₂ emissions.
Adaptation and Climate Justice
The study emphasizes that CADI estimates can guide agricultural and adaptation policies:
- New technologies to improve yields.
- Changes in crops and agricultural practices.
- Relocation of production to more resilient regions.
However, the capacity for adaptation is unequal: small farmers and territories with fewer resources face greater vulnerability.
The CADI index reveals that climate change is redefining the global agricultural map. Identifying the most exposed areas in advance will allow for better resource allocation, design effective adaptation measures, and strengthen climate justice policies.
The central question is how to ensure food security on a planet where nearly half of the population could live in regions with declining productivity by mid-century.
