With the arrival of spring, a gradual rise in temperatures is expected in Argentina. However, what is forecasted for the coming months far exceeds the usual.
This could mark the beginning of one of the most intense heatwaves in decades in Argentina. This is warned by the National Meteorological Service (SMN) in its latest climate report.
Most affected regions: epicenter in Córdoba and alert in the central region of the country
Several provinces could exceed their historical temperature records between October and December.
- Córdoba: 55% chance of breaking records
- Buenos Aires, La Pampa, Santa Fe, San Luis, Entre Ríos, and southern San Juan: 50% chance of extreme heat
- Northeast and Patagonia: 45% chance of above-normal temperatures
- Argentine Northwest: only region with temperatures within historical parameters
An abrupt change in meteorological conditions
After a cool spring, persistent heat is expected until summer and even the beginning of 2026.
The SMN anticipates that the early summer-like weather could extend, creating prolonged heat scenarios that will affect both health and infrastructure, as well as ecosystems. The persistence of high temperatures poses adaptation challenges for urban and rural communities.
Precipitation outlook: regional contrasts and water deficit
Above-average rainfall in the northwest, but below average in the Mesopotamia and Patagonia.
- Argentine Northwest: 50% chance of above-normal rainfall
- Mesopotamia, Chubut, Río Negro, and western Neuquén: predicted water deficit
This contrast in precipitation could exacerbate water vulnerability in areas already affected by droughts, while other regions could face intense rainfall events.
Spring 2024: the hottest on record
The September-November quarter broke all historical temperature records in Argentina
- Thermal anomaly: +1.5°C compared to the previous 2014 record
- 42 locations in the central region of the country, CABA, and GBA: exceeded their historical records
- 12 provinces: recorded exceptional temperatures
“The temperatures were exceptional and broke all records,” stated the SMN.
Comparison with previous record-breaking springs
The years 1971, 1977, 2003, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2020, and 2021 also marked thermal anomalies
The spring of 2024 stands out for its intensity and territorial extent, consolidating a growing trend of extreme events linked to global climate change.
