A new international report reveals an uncomfortable yet compelling conclusion: massive tree planting, on its own, cannot neutralize the impact of continuing to burn fossil fuels.
According to the study’s calculations, if all the emissions contained in the current reserves of the world’s 200 largest oil and gas companies were released, a forest of 24.6 million km² would be required to absorb that carbon. In other words, more than all of North America.
An Overspent Carbon Budget
Researchers estimate that these reserves contain a potential emission of 742,000 million tons of CO₂, a figure that greatly exceeds the global carbon budget compatible with the 1.5°C warming limit, a critical threshold to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
Even if reforestation were prioritized as a compensation solution, the report warns that:
- The economic cost would exceed 10.8 trillion dollars, more than 11% of the global GDP
- It would involve a massive displacement of cities, crops, and pre-existing ecosystems
- The transformation of the global landscape would be radical and unfeasible
On the other hand, the technological alternative of Direct Air Capture (DAC) is even more expensive: around 831 € per ton, which would bring the total bill to 627 trillion euros, 700% of the global GDP.
Reforestation, yes, but with limits and no illusions
The study does not underestimate the value of reforestation. On the contrary, it recognizes its key role in:
- The ecological regeneration of degraded soils
- The protection of water basins and community resilience
- The creation of green jobs and opportunities in the bioeconomy
But it points out a critical limit: it cannot serve as a license to continue expanding the fossil frontier. The logic of “compensating later” with trees has proven to be an illusory solution if not accompanied by a structural reduction in the use of oil, gas, and coal.
Political Inaction and Concerning Signs
Meanwhile, major fossil fuel companies continue to explore and extract without restrictions, with no strong regulatory signals to halt the extractive model.
The report also questions the political regression in central countries, such as the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement and the cancellation of decarbonization projects, measures that further weaken global efforts.
What Path Remains Against the Impact of Fossil Fuels?
The message of the study is clear: planting trees is necessary but insufficient. To maintain a habitable planet, it requires:
- Drastic reduction in the extraction and consumption of fossil fuels
- Acceleration of the transition to clean energies such as solar, wind, geothermal, and energy storage
- Energy efficiency, fair planning, and ambitious public policies
Real sustainability is not achieved through offsets, but rather through a structural change in the energy model. Only then will it be possible to prevent a climate collapse and ensure intergenerational justice.
Cover photo: Anton Petrus/Getty Images
