A recent study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) suggests that the Amazon could transform into a savanna due to deforestation and global warming. This change could occur if forest destruction and rising temperatures continue at the current pace.
The Threat of the Savanna: Deforestation and Global Warming
According to the research published in Nature, if forest loss reaches between 22% and 28% and temperatures increase between 1.5 and 1.9 ºC, two-thirds of the Amazon rainforest could become a savanna-like ecosystem. The effects would be devastating for global climate and biodiversity.
Scientists warn that the Amazon, known as the lungs of the world, is losing its ability to generate rain and absorb carbon, endangering its ecological stability.
Moreover, the rise in global temperatures acts as a factor that weakens the forest’s resilience, and even if logging were stopped, extreme heat could transform the jungles into savannas.
In 2020, deforestation had already impacted between 17% and 18% of the Amazon biome due to logging, agriculture, and infrastructure.
Researchers from PIK warn that this level of destruction is bringing the Amazon closer to a critical point of irreversible degradation, with potential chain effects worldwide.
A concerning element of the study is that the Amazon is losing its ability to recycle rain. Currently, 50% of precipitation comes from water released by trees, a cycle that is breaking with the loss of forest mass.
Global warming intensifies droughts and alters natural mechanisms, which could trigger a partial collapse of the Amazon rainforest even without further deforestation.
Experts see that Amazonian degradation would have direct effects on the global climate, given its enormous carbon absorption capacity.
However, the study suggests that if urgent measures are adopted, it is possible to protect the Amazon. Limiting deforestation and reducing emissions would prevent the collapse.
The Amazon remains crucial for regulating the global climate, serving as a carbon sink, and conserving biodiversity. Protecting it would benefit not only South America but also the global climate.
Scientists remain optimistic about the possibility of preventing the worst-case scenario through decisive actions to curb deforestation and restore degraded areas.
