The vast caldera of Campos Flégreos, located on the outskirts of Naples, has recorded an increase in the intensity and frequency of its seismic activity, generating concern among authorities and the scientific community.
According to a study published in Science Advances, researchers from Stanford have identified a mechanism that could explain these earthquakes and, most importantly, possible solutions to reduce them.
## The role of water in seismic activity
Using images of the subsurface and laboratory experiments, scientists demonstrated that the accumulation of water and vapor pressure in the geothermal reservoir beneath Campos Flégreos can trigger earthquakes when the overlying rock seals.
This finding challenges the traditional belief that tremors in the area are driven by the ascent of magma.
## A method to reduce earthquakes
Researchers suggest that seismic activity could be managed by:
– **Controlling runoff and reducing groundwater levels**, decreasing pressure within the reservoir
– **Extracting fluids from wells** to prevent dangerous accumulations.
According to Tiziana Vanorio, lead author of the study, these mechanisms could reduce ground deformation and the recurrence of earthquakes.
## Seismic history of Campos Flégreos
Campos Flégreos has been monitored since the disturbances of 1982-1984 when:
– **The land rose more than 1.8 meters**, altering the geography of the port of Pozzuoli.
– **A magnitude 4 earthquake and thousands of microearthquakes** prompted the evacuation of 40,000 people.
Since 2011, the area has experienced similar seismic activity, with tremors accompanied by rumbling noises characteristic of steam-driven explosions.
## The relationship between water and earthquakes
The 13-kilometer-wide caldera experiences constant uplifts and subsidence, even without eruptions.
Historically, these changes were assumed to be caused by magma and its gases. However, this study indicates that the true driver of seismic activity is the accumulated water pressure within the sealed reservoir.
## Implications for disaster prevention
This discovery could influence risk management in volcanic areas and the implementation of preventive strategies for nearby populations.
Analyzing sediments and hydrogeological systems will allow for the development of more effective mitigation protocols and improve predictive models regarding the evolution of the Campos Flégreos caldera.
*Cover photo: Kurt Hickman*
