In Argentina, the climate phenomenon of La Niña will remain present until January 2026 and will bring less rainfall during the summer.
This is revealed by the latest projections from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University.
In this way, the climate phenomenon marks a drastic change compared to the intense rainfall of 2025.
If these estimates are met, a drier climate with less rain and more heat is expected in the country for December and January.
However, this should pass by February.
Forecast confirmed: La Niña will dominate the summer in Argentina
The equatorial Pacific is currently in a La Niña state, with sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region hovering around the critical threshold.
In this scenario, the Agricultural Risk Office (ORA) reported that there is a “trend of gradual cooling” that will continue.
Despite this phenomenon, currently in Argentina the rainfall remains active.
Regarding this, meteorologist Ignacio López Amorín explained that the atmosphere has a response time to the ocean of at least three months.
Therefore, this delay is being observed in the current rainfall pattern.
López Amorín also noted that, in Argentina, springs under La Niña tend to be dry.
This characteristic contrasts with the intense and regular rainfall recorded during 2025.
Projections and expected changes for 2026
The IRI report details the probabilities of the phenomenon for the coming months:
- 69% probability of La Niña during the November-December-January quarter
- 62% neutral conditions starting January-February-March
- Less than 20% probability of El Niño until March-April-May
- Gradual increase of El Niño starting April and May
The ORA highlighted that “from the January-February-March quarter onwards, conditions begin to change towards a neutral state regarding ENSO”.
This neutral state will become the predominant perspective during the period.
The forecast extends until June-July-August 2026.
Therefore, rainfall would decrease considerably during February, when neutral conditions will already dominate the climate outlook.
The impact of La Niña on soil moisture and corn planting
Much of the country experienced a week with scarce rainfall.
In particular, in areas with early corn planting, a widespread drying of the soil was observed.
The ORA clarified that “in areas where last week showed excesses, storage conditions would shift from adequate to optimal“.
However, the west of Córdoba did not record rain throughout the week.
The soils in Córdoba quickly shifted to scarce or deficient reserves in the first meter of depth. This situation concerns the agricultural sector in the middle of the planting season.
The Ministry of Agriculture anticipated that the progress in corn planting is similar to that of the previous campaign.
The exception is Buenos Aires, with a 55% progress until last week, compared to 62% the previous year.
La Niña will continue to define the rainfall pattern until January.
Starting in February, the shift to neutral conditions will significantly alter the precipitation regime in Argentina.
