The beginning of winter in Argentina brings with it a report from the National Meteorological Service (SMN) that has captured the attention of many. According to the climate analysis for July, August, and September, the weather this winter in much of the country is expected to be warmer than usual.
SMN Forecast: A Warmer Than Usual Winter
The SMN bases its forecasts on global and national climate models, as well as the analysis of oceanic and atmospheric conditions. This probabilistic approach offers an overview for the quarter, rather than specific daily predictions.
Despite the entry of polar air generating temperatures up to 10 degrees below average in some regions at the beginning of July, the report clarifies that this does not contradict the broader projections of a warm winter.
Temperatures and precipitations will not be homogeneous throughout the country, varying significantly by region. Some areas will experience warmer weather, while others will see above-normal rainfall or a typical winter drought.
In the north, including NOA, Cuyo, and Córdoba, temperatures are anticipated to be above the historical average. The east of Salta, Formosa, Chaco, Santiago del Estero, and large areas of Patagonia could also experience normal or higher temperatures.
On the other hand, the east and south of Buenos Aires and the eastern Patagonian region will remain within normal ranges, without notable thermal deviations, including the AMBA.
The SMN uses terciles to categorize temperatures. A normal range is within half a degree of the historical average. Outside this range would be considered abnormal.
Regarding precipitation, normal rainfall is expected in the north, south of the Litoral, Córdoba, among others. In contrast, the central-east of Buenos Aires and parts of Cuyo could see above-average rainfall.
The northeast of the Litoral and east of Patagonia have the highest probability of excess rainfall, while the NOA and the north of Cuyo face a dry season, with precipitation below the historical average.
Even in regions where the forecast is warm, cold air events could occur, causing temporary lows. Therefore, the SMN recommends staying alert to daily and weekly weather alerts.
