A recent study has revealed a concerning reality: coastal floods in the northeastern United States have significantly increased due to the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a key network of ocean currents.
The AMOC acts as a giant conveyor belt that distributes heat, salt, and freshwater across the Atlantic, influencing the climate, atmospheric conditions, and sea levels worldwide.
While the increase in sea level caused by climate change is the main factor behind these floods, the AMOC plays a critical role in the northeast, according to the report published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
### Impact of AMOC on floods and future forecasts
To assess its influence, researchers analyzed data from tide gauges (devices that monitor changes in sea level) and applied advanced oceanic models.
– They found that between 2005 and 2022, up to 50% of flooding events on the northeast coast were linked to a weakening of the AMOC.
– Specifically, the weakened AMOC contributed to up to eight days of flooding per year during this period.
– Additionally, the models used allow predicting the frequency of future floods up to three years in advance.
“This study is the first to demonstrate how the AMOC directly affects the recurrence of floods,” explained Liping Zhang, one of the authors of the analysis and a scientist at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
### The risk of AMOC collapse and its global consequences
The AMOC influences the behavior of the Gulf Stream, impacting water flow and exacerbating sea-level rise. According to Professor David Thornally of University College London, a weakened AMOC:
– Makes water less dense, increasing its volume and contributing to sea-level rise.
– Alters the course of the Gulf Stream, causing the retreat of water masses towards the coast.
The danger of an AMOC collapse in the coming decades is a concern for experts, as this event would trigger extreme climate changes and an acceleration in sea-level rise.
“Science has not yet accurately determined whether the AMOC will collapse, but understanding its effects is key to anticipating possible consequences,” stated Gerard McCarthy, an oceanographer at the University of Maynooth in Ireland.
### Planning and forecasting for climate change effects
Coastal floods, exacerbated by the weakening of the AMOC, pose a serious risk to coastal populations and urban infrastructure. Experts emphasize the need to improve the capacity for prediction and adaptation to these phenomena:
– Constant monitoring of sea levels and the state of the AMOC.
– Climate mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of global warming on the oceans.
– Coastal protection plans, such as natural barriers and flood resilience technologies.
“This study allows us to better understand the impact of changes in the AMOC and how we can prepare for extreme weather events,” Thornally concluded.
The research highlights the urgency of addressing climate change with concrete actions before its effects on the oceans lead to irreversible consequences for humanity.
*Cover photo: Unsplash – Oleksandr Brovko*
