A new international report warns that at the current pace of **carbon dioxide emissions**, humanity will deplete its remaining **carbon budget** to prevent **global warming from exceeding the critical threshold of 1.5°C** above pre-industrial levels in just three years.
The conclusion comes from the third annual report *Indicators of Global Climate Change*, prepared by a consortium of **over 60 scientists from 17 countries** and published in the journal *Earth System Science Data*. The study updates the key climate indicators from the **Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)**, and provides new projections on the pace of warming and the direct influence of human activities.
A climate clock in countdown mode
- The carbon budget —the amount of CO₂ that can still be emitted without exceeding 1.5°C— was estimated at **500 gigatonnes in 2020**.
- By **2024**, the figure had dropped to **130 gigatonnes**, representing **just over three years of emissions** at the current rate.
- The budget for 1.6°C or 1.7°C could be exceeded in **less than a decade**.
*”The window to stay within the 1.5°C target is rapidly closing,”* warned **Joeri Rogelj**, director of the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London.
Almost 90% of warming is caused by humans
According to the report, the **global average temperature in 2023** was **1.52°C higher than pre-industrial levels**, with 1.36°C attributable to **human activities**, mainly from the **burning of fossil fuels and deforestation**.
While an annual anomaly does not automatically imply a violation of the Paris Agreement, the record shows **how quickly the margin of action is narrowing**.
Between **2015 and 2024**, the global average temperature remained **1.24°C above pre-industrial levels**, with **53 gigatonnes of CO₂ emitted annually**.
Other signs of planetary imbalance
The study also identified **sustained increases in greenhouse gases such as CO₂, methane, and nitrogen oxides**, as well as a **growing energy imbalance** in the climate system.
Between **2019 and 2024**, the **mean sea level rose by 26 mm**, doubling the historical rate recorded since the early 20th century.
Call to action: clean energy and political coherence
The authors point out that while the **European Union is considering easing its emission reduction targets for 2040**, the report reinforces the urgency of **not stepping back from climate commitments**.
*”Until we switch to clean and sustainable land use practices, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise,”* warned **William Lamb** from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
*”Europe must lead global decarbonization. Now is not the time to hesitate,”* concluded **Chris Smith**, a researcher at the Free University of Brussels.
Time is running out, but global warming can still be halted
The report serves as a global thermometer and a scientific roadmap.
If ambitious measures are taken now —with drastic emission cuts, urgent energy transition, and strengthened climate policies— **it is possible to limit damages and protect millions of people from the most severe impacts of climate change**.
*Cover photo: Marek Piwnicki*
