The extreme heat in Europe multiplied tenfold in the period 2010-2024, according to a recent study conducted by Austrian researchers.
The method, developed by the University of Graz in Austria, allows for the calculation of risk metrics for extreme climate phenomena.
This includes heatwaves, floods, and droughts. The analysis, whose findings were published in the journal Weather and Climate Extremes, reviews its impact worldwide, including Europe.
The team, led by Gottfried Kirchengast, analyzed datasets of daily maximum temperatures recorded between 1961 and 2024. The focus was on extreme heat in Europe, especially in the center and south of the continent.
What the study says about extreme heat in Europe
The total extreme heat increased approximately 10 times in most regions of central and southern Europe, when comparing the period 2010-2024 with the reference period 1961-1990.
Kirchengast explained that this increase is due to the simultaneous increase of several factors:
- The frequency of heat phenomena
- The duration of the episodes
- The magnitude of the exceeded temperature thresholds
- The spatial extent of the events
“This enormous increase goes far beyond natural variability and shows the influence of human-induced climate change with a clarity that even I, as a climate researcher, had not seen before,” Kirchengast stated in a release.
How an “extreme” temperature is defined
The study set the threshold for extreme temperature at the value that was only exceeded on 1% of the days between 1961 and 1990. This varies by region.
For example, in the south of Spain this exceeds 35°C, in Austria 30°C, and in Finland it is around 25°C.
With this in mind, it is worth noting that temperatures above 30°C cause heat stress on the human body and weaken the physical condition of many people.
Thus, there are many areas in Europe where extreme heat directly affects individuals.
Moreover, extreme heat in Europe also affects multiple sectors of the economy. For example, among the most vulnerable are public health, construction, agriculture, forestry, and the energy sector.
A method with global reach
The new calculation system can be applied beyond the European continent. If long-term climate data is available, it allows for tracking the evolution of risks year by year and decade by decade anywhere in the world.
The method can also contribute to attributing responsibilities to actors that generate large emissions, such as states or companies, in the increase of climate damages.
Extreme heat in Europe is no longer just a statistical fact: it is, according to researchers, measurable and quantifiable evidence of human impact on the climate.
