International projections anticipate that the global temperature will reach record levels in 2026, positioning it among the hottest years ever documented.
The Met Office, the UK’s meteorological agency, estimated that the global average temperature will be 1.46 °C above pre-industrial levels.
This figure represents a critical scenario for the planet, just below the historic maximum of 1.55 °C recorded in 2024.
The possible range of global temperatures for the new year oscillates between 1.34 °C and 1.58 °C, within a context of sustained warming that would mark nearly a record.
The calculation is based on the observational series of global average temperatures, which spans from 1850.
This allows for the identification of global temperature trends that have intensified in recent decades, with new records.
Four consecutive years surpassing critical thresholds
Adam Scaife, head of the global forecasting team at the Met Office, explained that “it is likely that the last three years have exceeded 1.4 °C and we expect 2026 to be the fourth consecutive year in which this occurs.”
The expert added that before this sudden increase, the previous global temperature had not exceeded 1.3 °C. This acceleration of warming marks a turning point in the climate crisis.
Nick Dunstone, principal forecaster, stated: “In 2024, the first temporary exceedance of 1.5 °C was recorded and our forecast for 2026 suggests that this is possible again.”
The warning underscores how quickly the planet is approaching the goal of 1.5 °C set in the Paris Agreement.
The challenge of the Paris Agreement in the face of record global temperature
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015 during COP21, sets the goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2 °C.
It proposes “striving to limit this increase to even more than just 1.5 °C“, according to the UN.
The commitment, which came into force in November 2016, has the adherence of 194 parties.
Countries must review their national plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions every five years.
These plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), include both emission reduction policies and strategies to increase resilience to extreme phenomena.
The agreement also provides for funding to help developing countries mitigate global warming.
The UN highlights that “the agreement provides a lasting framework aimed at directing the global effort over the coming decades”.
The risks of exceeding the 1.5 °C threshold and reaching a record global temperature
The scientific community warns that exceeding the 1.5 °C threshold increases the risk of severe impacts related to climate change.
Every fraction of an additional degree contributes to worsening the adverse effects and complicates the task of limiting the damage.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimated that the current level of global warming is at 1.37 °C compared to the average for the period 1850-1900.
The data uses information from the last decade and projections for 2015-2034.
According to the Met Office, “science has repeatedly warned that warming above 1.5 °C leads to an increase in climate impacts and extreme weather events, as well as limiting adaptation options.”
The main causes of global warming
The United Nations links the increase in temperatures to human activity:
- Carbon dioxide emissions from the use of gasoline for vehicles
- Methane emissions from various industrial activities
- Coal use for building heating and power generation
- Greenhouse gases released by production processes
The review process of the Paris Agreement seeks to encourage more ambitious measures.
In 2023, the first “global stocktake” assessed the progress made and encouraged countries to strengthen their climate actions.
The implementation of the treaty is essential to meet the climate goals and the Sustainable Development Goals.
