According to the latest report from the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), in the last ten years, climate-related disasters have caused around 250 million internal displacements, equivalent to more than 67,000 daily displacements.
Floods in South Sudan and Brazil, unprecedented heatwaves in Kenya and Pakistan, or water scarcity in Chad and Ethiopia are examples of how extreme weather conditions are pushing already fragile communities to the limit.
War and climate: a devastating alliance
The report warns that war and climate change mutually reinforce each other. By mid-2025, 117 million people had been displaced by war, violence, and persecution. Of these, 75% live in countries highly exposed to extreme climate risks.
“Extreme weather conditions are putting people’s safety at greater risk; they are disrupting access to essential services, destroying homes and livelihoods, and forcing families—many of whom have already fled violence—to flee once again,” said Filippo Grandi, head of UNHCR.
These populations, who have already suffered immense losses, are among the most affected by severe droughts, deadly floods, and unprecedented heatwaves, but they are also the ones with the least resources to recover.
Survival systems under pressure
UNHCR warns that basic survival systems for refugees are increasingly under pressure. In some areas of Chad, affected by floods, refugees fleeing the war in Sudan receive less than 10 liters of water per day, a figure well below emergency standards.
Projections for 2050 are alarming: the hottest refugee camps could face almost 200 days of extreme thermal stress per year, with serious risks to health and survival.
“Many of these places are likely to become uninhabitable due to the deadly combination of extreme heat and high humidity,” states UNHCR.
Vulnerable returns and environmental deterioration
In 2025, 1.2 million refugees returned to their homes, but half did so in areas highly vulnerable to climate. Additionally, the report notes that 75% of African soil is deteriorating and that more than half of refugee settlements are located in areas of high environmental stress.
This situation reduces access to food, water, and income, and in regions like the Sahel, it fuels the recruitment of armed groups, intensifying conflicts and repeated displacements.
Insufficient funding and urgent call at COP30
Currently, conflict-affected countries hosting refugees receive only a quarter of the climate funding they need.
“Funding cuts are severely limiting our ability to protect refugees and displaced families from the effects of extreme weather,” warned Grandi at the opening day of the United Nations COP30 in Belém (Brazil).
The head of UNHCR was blunt:
“If we want stability, we must invest where people are most at risk. To prevent further displacements, climate funding must reach communities already living on the edge. They cannot be left alone. This COP must lead to real actions, not empty promises.”
The UNHCR report confirms that climate change is already a central driver of forced displacements, exacerbating humanitarian crises in conflict-affected countries. The combination of extreme weather events, environmental degradation, and lack of funding threatens to render vast regions uninhabitable and multiply the risks for millions of people.
COP30 thus becomes a decisive stage to promote concrete actions and effective funding, allowing the protection of the most vulnerable communities and preventing the climate from continuing to be a factor of mass expulsion.
