By: Mariano Villares, co-founder of Sustainability Without Borders
The Climate Change Summit in Belém enters its key moment after a first week of COP30 marked by partial technical advances, political blockages, and a strong presence in the streets demanding more ambition and climate justice.
Brazil put the Amazon at the center of the scene and opened an uncomfortable discussion about the coherence between discourse and development model, while the negotiations once again showed how far the world remains from a trajectory compatible with 1.5 degrees of global warming.
What the first week of COP30 left on the negotiation table
The Brazilian presidency released a document of options to organize the debate for the second week. It focuses on the main issues: improving emission reduction plans, agreeing on a roadmap for the new collective climate finance goal, and specifying how promises are turned into verifiable actions within each country.
The discussion on strengthening the Nationally Determined Contributions and the deadlines for submitting them remains unresolved. More than eighty countries have yet to register their targets for 2035, and global projections point to warming between 2.6 and 3.1 degrees, well above what the Paris Agreement proposes.
In terms of financing, the major pending issue is moving from the global number agreed in Baku to a credible trajectory of disbursements. Developing countries demand a binding plan that makes effective the obligation of developed nations to provide public resources for climate action, as indicated by Article 9, while simultaneously discussing the role of the private sector and multilateral banks in the large-scale mobilization of capital.
The role of Argentina
Argentina arrived in Belém with a national government that maintains a denialist discourse on climate issues and with a growing prominence of the provinces. The third NDC announced before the COP left more questions than certainties in terms of ambition and governance, largely due to the absence of a participatory process and solid monitoring mechanisms.
This fragility is observed in the National Climate Action Observatory that we coordinate from Sustainability Without Borders, where 73% of a set of one hundred official objectives surveyed present a high risk of non-compliance by 2030.
Although the national government stated in a virtual event that it would present the new NDC during the COP, so far there have been no concrete advances, and the trip of the Undersecretary of Environment, Fernando Brom, is said to have been canceled, and he reportedly submitted his resignation, according to various media reports days ago.
Additionally, Argentina’s role in the central negotiations, through a very limited Foreign Ministry delegation, focused on blocking consensus, especially when issues of gender, rights of indigenous peoples, and energy transition were addressed.
In contrast, provincial environmental authorities took advantage of the first week to strengthen ties with international networks, explore subnational financing instruments, and showcase their own energy transition and adaptation plans.
The subnational agenda appears as one of the few spaces where the country still manages to maintain some policy continuity and a technical base, beyond the fluctuations at the national level. From Sustainability Without Borders, we support this process by coordinating strategic meetings between provinces and the European Climate Foundation, Under2, International Emissions Trading Association (IETA), Natura, Globant, and facilitating spaces for provinces to participate as speakers and promoting a closed meeting with the UNFCCC executive secretary, Simon Stiell, focused on the role of subnational governments in the climate agenda.
The street, indigenous peoples, and the legitimacy of the process
The first week was not only played out in the negotiation rooms. Tens of thousands of people mobilized in Belém with demands for climate justice, defense of indigenous peoples, and questioning the advance of agribusiness and mining over the Amazon.
There were also blockades at the conference entrances, driven by indigenous organizations denouncing the gap between official speeches and what happens in the territories, while criticism grew over the scant presence of affected communities within the venue compared to the strong presence of corporate representatives and lobbyists. Although this is the COP with the highest participation of indigenous peoples in recent years, due to the proximity of the venue to the Amazon, even broader participation was expected.
What to watch in the second week
With ministers already present in Belém, the second week is structured around a high-level political instance, an intensive round of consultations to try to unlock the most sensitive issues. The Brazilian presidency must simultaneously combine three pieces: a clear decision on NDC 2035 with signs of greater ambition, a consistent guide for the new financing goal, and concrete steps on loss and damage and carbon markets to keep open the possibility of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees.
Belém will not solve all the problems of global climate governance. However, one week of COP30 was enough to leave an evident lesson: speeches quickly run out when not accompanied by schedules, responsibilities, and budgets that are grounded in the territory. With that benchmark, it is worth watching what happens in the coming days and months.
