The cloud forests of Latin America face a critical threat and could disappear by the year 2070. A recent study warns that the degradation of this ecosystem would put the water supply for thousands of people in key regions such as the Andes, the Atlantic Forest, and Guyana at serious risk.
According to research published in the scientific journal Journal for Nature Conservation, a large part of these forests could become extinct due to the combination of climate change and human activity. This phenomenon endangers the water security of populations that directly depend on this natural environment.
Characteristics and Biodiversity
The cloud forests are tropical mountain ecosystems, usually located between 1000 and 3000 meters above sea level. Their distinctive feature is the almost constant fog, along with high humidity levels and a remarkable biodiversity.
In the Latin American context, they are mainly distributed in the Andes, the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, and the highlands of Guyana.
These territories host about 1,946 endemic species, which represents approximately 8% of the mammals, birds, amphibians, and tree ferns of the entire planet.
The Role as Natural “Sponges”
Besides their biological value, they are vital for the water cycle. They function as natural “sponges”, capturing moisture from the fog to condense it over the vegetation and soil. This process allows for the recharge of aquifers and maintains the flow of rivers that supply the surrounding urban areas. However, in recent years, global warming and changes in land use have altered their distribution, threatening their ability to provide these ecosystem services.
Projections and Climate Scenarios
For the study, experts used machine learning models and regression to project the distribution of these forests under two scenarios:
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Optimistic Scenario: Predicts a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, with a temperature increase of 1.8 °C in South America and up to 2.7 °C in cloud forest areas. Under these conditions, the suitable area would be reduced by 21,105 km² (a 12% decrease).
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Pessimistic Scenario: Forecasts a thermal increase of 3.9 °C in the region and 4.3 °C in the forests, along with high irregularity in rainfall. In this case, the climatically suitable area would plummet by 91%, leaving only 15,285 km² of the current 172,460 km².
Biologist Peter Groenendyk notes that these climate changes would raise the cloud base and reduce humidity, forcing fauna and flora to move towards the summits, becoming isolated in forest fragments.
Meanwhile, the lead author, Patricia Vieira Pompeu, warns that in the most severe scenario, these forests would practically disappear from the Atlantic Forest and Guyana in less than 50 years, becoming much warmer areas with altered precipitation patterns.
Human and Social Impact
The consequences transcend nature: they directly affect 19.5 million people (the 5% of the South American population) who live near rivers fed by these forests.
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In the optimistic plan, 5 million people would see their access to water reduced.
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In the pessimistic plan, the figure rises to 16 million people (the 83% of current beneficiaries).
Groenendyk emphasizes that the loss of these ecosystems will reduce the quality and regulation of water, especially during droughts, as they act as ecological sentinels that reveal environmental impact before other environments.
The researchers’ conclusion is clear: to preserve this unique ecosystem, it is urgent to intensify actions against gas emissions and immediately halt changes in land use.
Source: Rodrigo de Oliveira Andrade/ SciDev.Net
