China is electrifying heavy transport at a pace that surpasses even the most optimistic projections.
This movement not only transforms its roads but also reorders the global industrial board, affects the diesel market, and adds pressure on manufacturers in Europe and the United States.
From Diesel Monopoly to Electric Revolution
In 2020, the Chinese truck market was practically a diesel monopoly. Five years later, the landscape changed radically:
- In the first half of 2025, 22% of new heavy trucks sold were electric.
- In 2024, they barely reached 9.2%.
- Forecasts point to 46% for all of 2025 and around 60% in 2026.
This is an unprecedented leap on a global scale.
The Decline of Gas and Diesel
A decade ago, liquefied natural gas (LNG) was presented as a clean transition. Today, electric vehicles surpass gas ones in sales month by month.
The change is already reflected in energy consumption: in 2024, diesel consumption in China fell by 11%, the largest drop since 2021.
Factors Driving Electrification
The shift is due to a combination of price, infrastructure, and industrial policy:
- Life cycle costs: although an electric truck costs two to three times more than a diesel one, Chinese studies show a total savings of 10 to 26% thanks to lower costs per kilometer.
- Advanced infrastructure: megacities like Beijing and Shanghai already have fast-charging stations specifically for trucks. In logistics corridors like the Yangtze Delta, charging points are expanding alongside distribution centers.
- Battery interchangeability: manufacturers like CATL are deploying battery swap stations nationwide, with plans to cover 150,000 km of highways. A 40-ton trailer can replace its depleted module in minutes.
- Public incentives: programs like the 2024 scrappage bonus offer up to $20,000 for each diesel truck replaced by an electric one.
Global Consequences
The impact is not limited to China. According to Rhodium Group, the reduction in diesel truck use in the country already cuts more than 1 million barrels per day in global oil demand, a direct hit to the world energy structure.
Meanwhile, the Chinese electric truck industry is beginning to expand internationally:
- Between 2021 and 2023, shipments grew by 73% annually in the MENA region and 46% in Latin America.
- BYD is building a factory in Hungary to supply the European market.
- Sany Heavy Industry plans to export electric trucks to Europe in 2026.
- Models are already circulating in India, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States.
Europe and the United States: Lagging Behind China
The European Union aims to reduce emissions from new trucks by 90% by 2040 compared to 2019. However, European projects remain at a pilot scale, with few units and limited production.
According to McKinsey, zero-emission trucks must halve in price to massively replace diesel. While Europe debates prolonging the life of the combustion engine, China is already setting up the electric export fleet of the near future.
Immediate Environmental Impact
The rapid electrification of heavy transport in China can transform one of the hardest-to-mitigate sources of emissions. Heavy-duty trucks emit disproportionate amounts of CO₂ per vehicle, so replacing them has an immediate effect on emission reduction.
If this trend is replicated in other countries:
- It could reduce air pollution in industrial areas and logistics corridors.
- The decline in global diesel demand would prevent millions of tons of emissions from its extraction, transport, and refining.
- The real benefit will depend on the energy matrix: the more renewable the electricity, the greater the positive impact.
China is setting the pace for the electrification of heavy transport, with effects that transcend its borders and reshape the global energy market. While Europe and the United States proceed cautiously, the Asian giant is already building the infrastructure and industry needed to lead the transition.
