A scientific analysis published in the journal Nature Food revealed that the global food system is unsustainable: it drives biodiversity loss, accelerates climate change, and does not guarantee the health of the global population.
However, the research proposes a transformation path through the combination of 23 specific measures in areas such as diet, livelihoods, and agriculture, aiming to align food production with public health, social inclusion, and environmental protection.
Projections towards 2050
The study, led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), used computer simulations to project future scenarios. The results show that, if these solutions are applied along with changes in other economic sectors, it would be possible to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C by mid-century. This would not only curb climate change but also save millions of lives and reduce environmental pollution.
Researchers estimate that implementing these measures would recover 182 million years of life lost due to preventable deaths each year, halve nitrogen pollution, and prevent ecological policies from increasing poverty.
Risks of maintaining current trends
Simulations warn that without deep interventions, global obesity will nearly double by 2050, rising from 848 to 1,461 million people, while the number of underweight people will barely decrease from 730 to 640 million. Premature deaths linked to poor diet will also increase, raising the loss of life years from 279 to 335 million annually.
The model shows significant geographical differences: obesity will prevail in wealthy and emerging regions, while southern Africa and Southeast Asia will face the “double burden” of high levels of malnutrition and obesity simultaneously.
Environmental impact of the food system
The study indicates that the food industry generates about one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions, in addition to being the main driver of biodiversity loss and fertilizer pollution.
Although a slight decline in agricultural emissions is projected by 2050, without structural changes, global warming will exceed 2.05 °C compared to the pre-industrial era, steering the world away from the Paris Agreement goal.
The 23 proposed measures
The advanced computer simulator MAgPIE allowed for the calculation of the impact of 23 actions grouped into four areas: diet, livelihoods, biosphere, and agriculture. Among them are:
- Diet changes: increase the consumption of legumes and vegetables, reduce meat and processed foods.
- Livelihoods: ensure decent minimum wages in the countryside.
- Environmental measures: protect biodiversity-rich areas, restore wetlands, and use fertilizers more efficiently.
- Agriculture: curb the expansion of the agricultural frontier and improve resource management.
Researchers emphasize that the measures work best when applied together, as they enhance benefits and reduce side effects. For example, a diet with fewer animal products could affect employment in livestock farming, but environmental conservation would generate new jobs that would partially offset that loss.
Social and economic benefits
The combination of all measures within a sustainable development pathway would reverse environmental degradation, halt biosphere degradation, and reduce human pressure on ecosystems. Under this scenario, global extreme poverty would drop to 25% of the projected level without changes, and protected land area would reach the international target of 30% by 2030.
The study predicts that if the transformation of the food system is accompanied by transitions in energy, industry, and urban planning, the probability of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C would be 38%, and keeping it below 2 °C, 91%. Additionally, improvements in equity and fair access to resources would help reduce both malnutrition and inequality.
The report highlights that reducing resources allocated to animal production in richer economies would free up capacities and facilitate healthier and more affordable diets. At the same time, it warns that the decline in agricultural labor demand requires active labor reconversion policies.
As Hermann Lotze-Campen, co-author of the study, noted: “With this holistic vision, considering climate, human health, the environment, and social justice, we contribute to the increasingly intense social and political debate about the future of our food”.
