After decades of sustained growth in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, responsible for global warming, China —the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter— is showing signs of a change in trend.
According to the Global Carbon Budget 2025 report, published by Carbon Brief within the framework of the Climate Summit in Brazil, the Asian giant has been reducing its pollution rate for two consecutive years compared to the last decade and could record its first absolute emissions decline in 2025.
A global context of rising emissions
The report forecasts that global emissions from fossil fuel burning will increase by 1.1% in 2025, reaching a new historical high. This growth, in line with the last three years, reflects the difficulty of achieving the desired global decline that the UN demands to curb the worst effects of climate change.
“We haven’t made much progress in emissions,” acknowledged Pep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project, although he highlighted China’s trajectory as a possible turning point.
China: a trend change with global impact
Currently responsible for 32% of global emissions, China could mark a milestone in 2025. The report projects an increase of 0.4%, but with a margin of error that opens the possibility of a decrease of -0.9% compared to 2024.
“It could already be very real that emissions in China have not grown or have even decreased,” Canadell noted, emphasizing that the effect would be very large globally.
To put its relevance into perspective: in 2024, China contributed 32% of fossil CO₂, compared to 13% from the U.S., 8% from India, and 6% from the European Union.
The Chinese renewable revolution
Behind this change is the massive expansion of renewable energies. China has managed to meet the increase in energy demand with clean energy, preventing its per capita emissions from continuing to grow.
- Solar and wind energy: unprecedented expansion in installed capacity.
- Clean transportation: aggressive promotion of electric vehicles and sustainable public transport.
- Industrial regulations: improvements in energy efficiency in sectors like steel and cement.
- Carbon market: implementation of a national emissions trading system.
Internal benefits for China
The reduction of emissions not only has a global impact but also direct benefits for the Chinese population:
- Improvement in public health: reduction of air pollution in major cities.
- Technological innovation: modernization of the electrical grid and development of low-cost batteries.
- Energy independence: less dependence on fossil fuels thanks to efficiency and renewables.
The rest of the major emitters
While China slows down its pollution, other major emitters show less encouraging figures:
- India: increase of 1.4%.
- U.S.: rise of 1.9%.
- European Union: growth of 0.4%, affected by colder weather and a drop in wind production in the north.
A challenge still insufficient
Despite the progress, global figures are still insufficient to limit warming to 2 °C. The report forecasts an increase of 2.7 °C by the end of the century, while the remaining carbon budget to maintain the 1.5 °C limit is practically exhausted.
This means that, even if China manages to reduce its emissions, the global effort still does not meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
A turning point with global impact
The possible reduction of emissions in China in 2025 would mark a historic milestone. As the world’s largest emitter, its actions have a direct impact on the fight against climate change and the possibility of approaching international goals.
Moreover, the renewable technology developed in China —such as low-cost batteries— is already benefiting other countries, making the energy transition cheaper globally.
The challenge now is for this change in trend to consolidate and extend to other major emitters, so that the planet can curb warming and ensure a sustainable future.
