The government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva managed to significantly reduce deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, and official projections anticipate that 2026 could record the lowest figure since 2012. However, the environmental relief coexists with new threats that silently advance over the largest tropical forest on the planet.
Although illegal logging decreased in different areas of Brazil, experts warn that forest degradation continues to expand. This phenomenon includes fires, selective logging, and extreme droughts that weaken the ecosystem without completely eliminating the vegetation cover.
Additionally, the combination of high temperatures and lack of rain is accelerating the deterioration of vast Amazonian regions. According to recent studies, about 40% of the forest already shows signs of environmental degradation.
Climate change exacerbates the forest’s fragility
The arrival of a new El Niño phenomenon worries scientists and environmental authorities. Forecasts indicate that the increase in temperatures and drier conditions could favor large-scale forest fires during 2026.
In parallel, degradation is advancing faster than expected. Satellite monitoring systems detected that between August 2025 and April 2026, alerts for forest degradation far exceeded those for traditional deforestation.
Meanwhile, researchers fear that the Amazon could reach a critical point of no return. If the forest loses its regeneration capacity, it could stop absorbing carbon dioxide and transform into a net source of pollutant emissions.
Moreover, a study published in the scientific journal Nature estimated that by 2050, between 10% and 47% of the Amazon could face irreversible transformations linked to climate stress.
Legislative projects generate environmental concern
In addition to the climate pressure, there is a political debate that worries environmental organizations. In Brazil, a legislative proposal promoted by Lucio Mosquini is being discussed, which could limit sanctions for illegal deforestation detected via satellites.
For environmental experts, this initiative represents a possible setback in ecological oversight. They also believe that weakening technological monitoring would hinder the protection of vulnerable areas of the forest.
On the other hand, organizations like IBAMA have intensified preventive controls on properties with a high risk of fires. Authorities aim to prevent new outbreaks before the flames spread during the dry season.
However, specialists insist that stopping deforestation is no longer enough on its own. It is also essential to restore degraded areas and strengthen climate conservation policies.
Other threats facing the Brazilian Amazon
In addition to fires and droughts, the Brazilian Amazon faces other dangers associated with human encroachment on the territory. The agricultural expansion continues to pressure large forest areas to expand areas for soy and livestock.
At the same time, illegal mining causes river contamination with mercury and severely affects indigenous communities and aquatic species. This activity also drives the opening of clandestine roads that fragment natural habitats.
On the other hand, the construction of roads and infrastructure works facilitates the entry of extractive activities into previously isolated regions. As a result, biodiversity loss increases and the capacity for ecological recovery decreases.
In light of this scenario, scientists emphasize that preserving the Amazon is not only vital for Brazil. The forest plays an essential role in global climate regulation, carbon storage, and the conservation of millions of animal and plant species.
