An analysis published in The Lancet Planetary Health warns that the harmful health effects associated with the plastic life cycle could double by 2040 if immediate measures are not taken.
The research, led by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) along with universities of Exeter and Toulouse, used simulation models to evaluate different scenarios of production, consumption, and management of plastic waste between 2016 and 2040.
Impacts at all stages of the life cycle
The study identified health damages at each phase:
- Extraction of fossil fuels, the raw material for more than 90% of plastics.
- Industrial production, with greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric pollutants.
- Use and disposal, which release toxic chemicals and waste into the environment.
These emissions are linked to global warming, respiratory diseases, cancers, and other serious pathologies.
DALYs: a measure of health burden
The researchers calculated the “disability-adjusted life years” (DALYs), which reflect the years of healthy life lost due to diseases.
- In 2016, plastics generated 2.1 million DALYs.
- In 2040, under an unchanged scenario, they could exceed 4.5 million DALYs.
- In total, the global plastic system could reduce 83 million years of healthy life between 2016 and 2040.
Action scenarios
The study explored alternatives:
- Isolated measures, such as increasing recycling, had little impact.
- Complete systemic change (production reduction, comprehensive waste management, renewable energies) could reduce the health burden by 43% by 2040.
The research concludes that primary plastic production is the main cause of health effects. Reducing it, without replacing it with other equally harmful materials, offers the best results.
Authors’ voices
Researcher Megan Deeney noted that the effects of plastics on health “go far beyond the moment a product is purchased or placed in a recycling bin.” The analysis shows that individual action is not enough: a systemic change from start to finish in the production, use, and disposal of plastic is required.
Study limitations
The model was based on available emissions data, which implies restrictions:
- Direct impacts from the plastic use stage were not included.
- Many of the chemicals present in microplastics and nanoplastics were also not considered.
Even so, the results offer a clear view of the magnitude of the problem and the urgency to act.
The study warns that without ambitious and coordinated measures, plastics could become a global public health crisis. The lack of industry transparency and inconsistency in information about its chemical composition limit the ability to design effective policies.
The research reinforces the need for more committed governments, more transparent industries, and a systemic change that reduces production and safely manages plastic waste.
