A study by the Escolhas Institute reveals that the recovery of deforested forests in Brazil, home of COP30, could generate 69,000 jobs and R$ 45 billion in Brazilian reais in income, in addition to capturing millions of tons of CO₂.
Brazil has the opportunity to demonstrate its environmental commitment as the host of the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), to be held in Belém, Pará, in 2025. However, the state that will host the event is also the most affected by deforestation in settlements of agrarian reform. According to the Escolhas Institute, Pará concentrates 44% of the degraded areas in these settlements, equivalent to 438,700 hectares of lost native vegetation.
The report “Recovering the forest in rural settlements in Pará: What does Brazil gain from this?” shows that the restoration of these areas could produce more than 15 million tons of food and 278 million seedlings, in addition to generating 69,000 jobs in the next three decades. This recovery is mandatory according to the Forest Code of 2012 and requires an investment of R$ 25.3 billion, with an estimated return of R$ 45 billion in net income, that is, 1.8 times the value invested.
### Strategies for forest recovery
The research proposes two methods for restoration. In areas with low or medium potential for natural regeneration, totaling 178,600 hectares, agroforestry systems would be applied, combining agricultural crops with trees and shrubs, allowing food production while restoring vegetation. On the other hand, in areas with high potential for regeneration, passive restoration would be implemented, a process in which the ecosystem recovers without direct human intervention.
The environmental impact of this recovery would be significant: more than 186 million tons of CO₂ would be removed from the atmosphere in 30 years, equivalent to three times the annual emissions of the agricultural sector in Pará, which released 54.1 million tons of CO₂ equivalent in 2023.
### The challenge of meeting climate commitments
Rafael Giovanelli, research manager at the Escolhas Institute, emphasizes the urgency of these actions: “The Government must accelerate the restoration of these areas to reach COP30 with concrete advances in the goal assumed in the Paris Agreement. Pará is key in this strategy, as it hosts 30% of the rural settlements in the country and more than 205,000 settled families, a national record.”
While the Productive Forests program, launched in 2024 by the Federal Government, seeks to restore degraded areas through agroforestry systems, the current funds are insufficient. So far, the program has allocated $15 million to serve 1,680 families in Pará and recently launched a call for $150 million to restore vegetation in various states of the Amazon.
“The current resources are not sufficient. In Pará alone, $25 billion is needed. However, our study shows that this investment would generate thousands of jobs and millions of tons of food, benefiting both the economy and the environment,” concludes Giovanelli.
The challenge is significant, but with COP30 on the horizon, Brazil has the opportunity to turn the recovery of its forests into a model of sustainable development.
### What is COP30 and when will it take place?
The United Nations Climate Change Conference, whose 30th edition will take place from November 10 to 21, 2025, at the deactivated Brigadeiro Protásio Oliveira Airport in the city of Belém, Pará, as announced by the UN on May 18, 2023.
The Brazilian city had already applied to host during COP 27, held in Sharm el-Sheji, Cairo, which was attended by the President of Brazil, Lula da Silva, and officially announced in January 2023.
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