The international agricultural markets maintain favorable prospects for the 2026-2027 cycle. However, international organizations warn that various environmental, climatic, and geopolitical factors could compromise the stability of food systems in the coming years.
Although global cereal production will continue at high levels, a decrease of about 2% compared to the exceptional records achieved during the previous season is expected. Even so, accumulated reserves would allow sustaining the global supply.
On the other hand, specialists point out that the combination of extreme climatic phenomena, international conflicts, and energy volatility could generate significant impacts on food production and access, especially in the most vulnerable regions.
Cereals in decline, but with sufficient availability
Estimates indicate that global cereal production would reach around 2.982 million tons during 2026. While the figure remains high, it represents a reduction from recent historical highs.
Likewise, wheat would register a significant drop due to lower yields expected in Australia, the European Union, and the United States. Meanwhile, global cereal consumption would continue to grow, driven by the increase in the world population.
However, in low-income countries, a decrease in per capita consumption is projected, a sign that raises concerns about the ability to access basic foods in sectors with greater economic difficulties.
Fertilizers and energy: factors conditioning production
In addition to the climatic variables, the agricultural market faces tensions derived from supply chains. During the first months of 2026, the international trade of fertilizers experienced a reduction of between 20% and 25%.
As a result, producers from different regions observe with concern the future availability of essential inputs to maintain agricultural productivity levels.
Added to this is the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy transport. Any disruption in that area could cause increases in the costs of production, transportation, and distribution of food.
The economic impact of increasingly costly food
The global food import bill reached an estimated record of 2.2 trillion dollars. This increase was mainly due to the rising cost of high value-added products, including cocoa, spices, fish, fruits, vegetables, and animal products.
Meanwhile, high-income countries account for more than two-thirds of total spending. Nonetheless, middle and low-income economies also face significant increases that pressure their budgets and food systems.
Therefore, experts warn that an increase in energy prices could further amplify the costs of food through higher logistical, insurance, and international transportation expenses.
How El Niño can affect food production
The El Niño climatic phenomenon originates from an anomalous warming of the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This change alters global atmospheric patterns and modifies the distribution of rainfall and temperatures in numerous regions of the planet.
As a result, some areas may suffer prolonged droughts, while others face floods, intense storms, and loss of fertile soil. These events reduce agricultural productivity and affect the availability of water for crops and livestock.
Additionally, changes in climatic regimes alter planting calendars, favor the emergence of pests, and decrease the quality of crops. Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean are among the regions most at risk from a possible intense El Niño episode.
International call to prevent a food crisis
In light of this scenario, United Nations organizations have launched a funding call for 202 million dollars aimed at protecting about nine million people in 22 countries considered high risk.
Among the prioritized territories are Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Philippines, East Timor, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, and Venezuela.
In this way, the international community seeks to strengthen the resilience of agri-food systems in the face of climatic and economic challenges that threaten global food security, in a context where environmental adaptation becomes increasingly urgent to ensure access to food.
