A new study published in Scientific Reports warns that Africa’s forests have stopped functioning as carbon sinks and have become a net source of CO₂ emissions.
Deforestation and forest degradation have caused an annual loss of 106 billion kilograms of biomass, equivalent to the weight of about 106 million cars.
A Worrying Turning Point
The research, led by the National Center for Earth Observation from the universities of Leicester, Sheffield, and Edinburgh, confirms a trend change after 2010, coinciding with agricultural expansion, logging, and the construction of new infrastructure in several African countries.
Until 2010, the continent’s forests still managed to absorb carbon. However, between 2010 and 2017, the loss accelerated, especially in the tropical rainforests of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Madagascar, and West Africa.
Satellite Technology to Measure Biomass
The scientific team used high-precision satellite data combined with machine learning algorithms to reconstruct more than a decade of variations in aerial biomass.
Among the tools used are:
- NASA’s GEDI space laser.
- Japan’s ALOS radars.
These technologies allowed the detection of even localized losses of tree cover that previously went unnoticed.
Savanna versus Mature Forests
Savanna areas, where shrubby vegetation grows rapidly, recorded biomass gains. However, these were insufficient to compensate for the destruction of mature forests, which store much more carbon. In practice, the continent no longer retains CO₂: it expels it.
Global Consequences
Professor Heiko Balzter, director of the Institute for Environmental Futures at the University of Leicester, summarizes the seriousness of the finding:
“If Africa’s forests stop absorbing carbon, other territories will have to cut their emissions even more to keep the goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C alive. There is no margin.”
This shift comes at a key moment, when countries gathered at the COP30 in Brazil agreed to launch the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, a mechanism aimed at mobilizing billions of dollars to support forest countries in conserving their intact forests.
Weak Governance and Local Challenges
Co-author Nezha Acil notes that forest governance remains fragile in large parts of the continent. Illegal logging, lack of personnel to monitor remote areas, and the absence of sustainable economic alternatives fuel degradation.
Initiatives like AFR100, which aims to restore 100 million hectares by 2030, represent a significant step but require regional coordination and stable funding. Restoration involves more than planting trees: it means recovering degraded soils and ensuring that communities live better with the forest than without it.
Impact on Biodiversity and Communities
The loss of African forests affects not only the climate but destabilizes multiple systems:
- Biodiversity: endemic species lose habitat at an unsustainable rate.
- Water cycle: fewer trees mean less moisture in the soil and less local rainfall.
- More intense fires: degradation generates dry fuels and fragments the forest.
- Rural communities: resources like firewood, wild foods, and medicinal plants are reduced.
- Soil erosion: the loss of tree cover degrades fertility, compromising agricultural production.
Transparency in Carbon Markets
Researcher Pedro Rodríguez-Veiga, currently at the company Sylvera, emphasizes that the study provides essential data for the voluntary carbon market, where the lack of transparency has raised doubts about the credibility of some projects. If Africa becomes a net source of emissions, global offset strategies will be called into question.
African forests, historically allies in the fight against climate change, are at a critical turning point. Deforestation has turned them into net carbon emitters, with direct consequences for the climate, biodiversity, and local communities.
The protection and restoration of these ecosystems are urgent. Conserving them ensures that they return to functioning as natural carbon sinks, essential to maintaining climate stability and meeting global emission reduction targets.
