The new report Global Tipping Points 2025, prepared by 160 scientists from 85 institutions and led by the University of Exeter, warns that warm-water coral reefs could be the first ecosystem to reach a point of no return.
The current global warming, ranging between 1.3 and 1.4°C, already exceeds the critical threshold for their survival.
Ecosystems at risk: glaciers, forests, and ocean currents
The report identifies multiple land systems that could collapse with just a 1.5°C temperature increase.
In addition to corals, the document points out that other key elements like permafrost, Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, and the Amazon rainforest are facing increasing risks.
PIK scientist Sina Loriani warns about the activation of feedback loops that could accelerate irreversible changes in the land system.
“The abrupt and irreversible nature of these points implies a distinct threat from other environmental challenges,” the report states.
Coral reefs are crucial for aquatic ecosystems.
Local impacts with global consequences
From floods in Alaska to biodiversity loss in the tropics, the effects are already being felt in vulnerable communities.
The case of the Mendenhall Glacier in Alaska illustrates how even small systems can cause record floods and billions in damages.
According to researcher Donovan Dennis, these events particularly affect cities, indigenous villages, and local communities that must adapt to ongoing environmental change.
Coral reefs: pillars of marine life and coastal protection
Their collapse would have global ecological, economic, and health consequences, as they are essential for:
- Biodiversity: hosting over a million species, including fish, sponges, mollusks, and crustaceans
- Habitat and shelter: key areas for reproduction and growth of marine life
- Coastal protection: serving as natural barriers against storms and erosion
- Water filtration: improving water quality and clarity
- Economy and food: supporting activities like fishing, tourism, and diving, and being a food source for millions
- Medicine: their organisms have led to the discovery of compounds with pharmacological potential
Urgency of action and signs of hope
The report highlights technological advancements but warns that current policies are insufficient.
While there are positive changes such as the expansion of solar energy, wind power, electric vehicles, and heat pumps, the director of the Global Carbon Project, Pep Canadell, emphasizes that negative impacts are amplified each year and affect more people for longer periods.
Restore, protect, and transform: the possible path
Avoiding the collapse of reefs and other ecosystems requires urgent, coordinated, and structural measures.
The report concludes that the window of opportunity is narrowing, and that environmental governance must adapt to the irreversible nature of these critical points.
Restoring ecosystems, decarbonizing key sectors, and rethinking the link between economy and nature are essential steps to prevent a global ecological crisis.
