After a brief period of climate neutrality, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and various international monitoring centers have confirmed that the El Niño phenomenon is back in 2026.
Predictive models suggest that this warm phase of the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) could reach considerable intensity, raising alarms about a new record of global temperatures.
The warming of the Pacific Ocean
The engine of this phenomenon is the anomalous increase in sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
This warming alters atmospheric circulation patterns on a planetary scale, weakening the trade winds and shifting the usual precipitation zones.
Meteorologists warn that the combination of anthropogenic warming (caused by human activity) and the oceanic heat release characteristic of El Niño creates a “cumulative effect.”
This increases the likelihood that the year 2026 or 2027 will exceed the 1.5 °C warming threshold compared to pre-industrial levels established in the Paris Agreement.
Predicted global impacts
The reappearance of El Niño does not affect all regions equally, but its consequences are often extreme:
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South America: Torrential rains and flooding are expected in the coastal areas of Peru and Ecuador, as well as an increase in precipitation in the central-east of Argentina and southern Brazil.
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Australia and Southeast Asia: Historically, these regions face severe droughts and an increased risk of devastating wildfires.
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Africa: Areas in the east of the continent could suffer flooding, while the south would face a water shortage affecting food security.
Consequences in extreme weather
The return of this phenomenon with force implies a change in the dynamics of extreme events. A change in the hurricane season is expected: while in the Atlantic activity tends to decrease due to wind shear, in the Pacific the formation of tropical cyclones tends to be more frequent and intense.
Additionally, the extra heat injected into the atmosphere accelerates the melting of glaciers and contributes to the thermal expansion of the oceans, raising the sea level.
Monitoring and preparation
Experts emphasize that, although we cannot stop El Niño, improving early warning systems is essential to mitigate economic and human damage.
The scientific community continues to analyze whether climate change is causing these events to be more frequent or severe, transforming what was once a natural cycle into a constant threat to the planet’s climate stability.
