Europe set a historic goal this Wednesday to combat climate change: to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990.
The Council of the European Union and the European Parliament reached a political agreement yesterday that amends the European climate law.
However, the Advisory Scientific Committee warns that the included flexibilities could compromise the final goal.
The provisional pact, which must be formalized by both institutions, represents a binding intermediate step towards climate neutrality by 2050.
However, scientists point out that allowing compensations through carbon credits instead of real reductions could weaken climate efforts.
The doubts about Europe’s new emission reduction target
The agreement reached by the European Union introduces flexibility mechanisms that concern experts.
Starting in 2036, EU member countries will be able to offset emissions by purchasing high-quality international carbon credits
These must be equivalent to 5% of the net emissions of the EU in 1990.
“While its goal is to provide a margin of maneuver for implementation, such flexibility would effectively reduce national emission reductions to 85%,” warned the Advisory Council in a statement.
Ottmar Edenhofer, president of the scientific body, acknowledged that the agreement constitutes “an important milestone for the EU to stay on a viable path towards climate neutrality by 2050“.
However, he warned that some introduced flexibilities “risk weakening national emission reductions for 2040 and thus endangering the EU’s long-term climate neutrality goal”.
The commitment also confirms the one-year postponement of the emissions trading scheme for buildings and road transport (ETS2).
The key elements of the EU’s new climate framework
The agreement establishes several fundamental components that will guide future legislative proposals of the European Commission:
- Competitiveness and simplification in implementation
- Social equity and consideration of national circumstances
- Energy security and support for innovation
- Management and improvement of long-term natural sinks
- Greater flexibility between economic sectors
The text contemplates a pilot phase between 2031 and 2035 to develop an international market for high-integrity credits.
The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, celebrated the pact: “One month after COP30, we turn our words into actions, with a legally binding target of 90% emission reduction by 2040“.
Von der Leyen highlighted that there is “a clear direction towards climate neutrality and a pragmatic and flexible plan to make the clean transition more competitive”.
The debate on international credits in the new agreement to reduce Europe’s emissions
For Edenhofer, sustained and credible national action is essential to drive investment, innovation, and structural transformation across the European economy.
The scientist emphasized that international carbon credits must meet “the highest standards of environmental integrity to not undermine the EU’s national transition”.
The Advisory Scientific Committee, composed of 15 independent experts, originally recommended a reduction range of 90-95% for 2040.
For three years, the body developed a coherent framework based on scientific evidence that now includes additional flexibility elements.
The co-legislators agreed on safeguards to ensure the integrity of the credits, allowing the Commission to complement the criteria of the Paris Agreement.
The review mechanism will include periodic assessments of progress in competitiveness, energy prices, and the level of net removals.
The Committee will continue working with institutions and member states to monitor the implementation of the 2040 target and ensure that Europe maintains a credible trajectory towards 2050.
