A recent study has revealed that human factors have increased the incidence of extreme fires in the Arctic by 200 times, indicating a direct connection between anthropogenic activity and the notable rise of these events in recent decades.
The research indicates that the probability of these fires being caused solely by natural variability is less than 1%. This underscores the critical influence of climate change in this Arctic region.
Since 1982, data shows that nine out of the ten years with the largest area affected by fires have been recorded in the 21st century.
The analysis identifies the increase in daily maximum temperatures and the reduction in relative humidity as determining factors that promote extreme wildfires. These changes dry out vegetation, increasing the ease of ignition and fire spread.
Additionally, there has been an observed increase in vapor pressure deficit, an indicator of air dryness that affects vegetation, facilitating an environment conducive to more intense fires.
Published in Environmental Research Letters, the study highlights anthropogenic forces as essential to explaining the increase in fires in the pan-Arctic region during 2019-2021, years of unprecedented extreme events.
During this period, a total of 23.4 million hectares were burned, surpassing the 21.3 million hectares affected between 1990 and 2000.
Areas located north of the 60th parallel, including Canada, Alaska, Greenland, and Siberia, have seen an increase of over 40% in the frequency and intensity of fires since the year 2000.
This increase coincides with the rapid warming of the Arctic, where temperatures are rising at a rate up to four times faster than the global average, affecting the stability of permafrost and ecosystems.
The study also analyzes the impact of greenhouse gas emissions, aerosols, and burned biomass, concluding that these human activities have altered the climate balance and increased the likelihood of extreme fires.
These fires release large amounts of carbon stored in the permafrost, thus accelerating climate change and deepening the climate crisis.
Without a significant reduction in emissions, fires in the Arctic will continue to increase, perpetuating an increasingly irreversible climate cycle.
