Climate models anticipate a strong El Niño phenomenon starting in the spring of 2026. This event could lead to a significant increase in rain and storms across much of the Argentine Littoral, with impacts also in Uruguay, southern Brazil, and Paraguay.
According to meteorologist Leonardo De Benedictis, speaking with the Elonce portal, the phenomenon would begin to be felt between September and October, extending until March or April 2027. Unlike isolated storms in recent years, El Niño causes more widespread and persistent precipitation, increasing the risk of river flooding and inundations.
What is El Niño
El Niño is a disruption of atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the tropical Pacific, characterized by:
- Weakening of the trade winds.
- Displacement of warm waters towards America.
- Modification of rainfall and temperatures on a global scale.
Its effects are felt in America, Asia, and Europe, and in Argentina, they usually impact strongly on the Littoral and central area.
Main impacts in Argentina
- Increase in rainfall: precipitation well above normal.
- Flood risk: higher frequency of severe storms and river basin flooding.
- Agricultural impact: rural flooding, difficulties in harvests, and logistical delays.
- Temperature variations: warmer springs and changes in usual patterns.
- Logistical complications: excess water affects transportation and production.
Alert 2026: possible “Super El Niño”
Meteorologists warn that by September 2026 a Super El Niño could develop, with greater intensity than previous events.
This contrasts with the opposite phenomenon, La Niña, characterized by droughts and decreased rainfall, as expected towards the end of 2024 or early 2025.
Prevention and preparation
De Benedictis emphasized the importance of:
- Permanent monitoring of flows and precipitation.
- Anticipated measures by municipalities and organizations in the face of extraordinary rains.
- Community awareness to avoid unnecessary alarms but be prepared for a period with increased rainfall.
The experience of previous phenomena shows that lack of preparation can lead to economic losses, infrastructure damage, and social impacts. Therefore, it is recommended to strengthen early warning systems, evacuation plans, and water defense works.
Regional context
El Niño not only impacts Argentina:
- In Uruguay, it usually causes flooding in low areas of the western littoral.
- In southern Brazil, it increases the risk of severe storms and river overflows.
- In Paraguay, it affects the Paraguay River basin and creates complications in agricultural production.
These interconnected effects show the need for regional cooperation to face the phenomenon.
El Niño 2026 could become one of the most intense phenomena of recent decades, with direct impacts on the Argentine Littoral and the region. Preventive preparation and institutional coordination will be key to mitigating flood risks, protecting communities, and sustaining agricultural production in a scenario of extraordinary rainfall.
