The resurgence of orange tones in the California trees might seem promising. However, we start from historically low figures.
The Western Monarch Count documented 12,260 western monarch butterflies at 249 locations during the wintering season, from late November to early December 2025.
Although they are more than the 9,119 from the previous year, it remains the third lowest record since monitoring began in 1997. Talking about recovery would be premature.
Recent figures are not encouraging. The three worst records are concentrated in recent years: 1,901 in 2020, 9,119 in 2024, and 12,260 in 2025. In the 1980s, these butterflies were counted by the millions in western North America. This is not an isolated event but a concerning trend.
A slight increase does not solve the problem. The western population, mainly wintering on the California coast, remains vulnerable. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has not yet granted federal protection to the monarch.
Monarch Butterfly Situation
In December 2024, it was proposed to classify it as a threatened species and declare critical habitats, but this measure is pending.
The urgency comes not only from the numbers. The loss of habitats, exposure to insecticides, and climate change are significant threats.
According to recent assessments, the probability of extinction of this population exceeds 95% by 2080, a warning that cannot be taken lightly.
Another less visible threat is the disappearance of wintering areas. Since the start of the count, more than 60 sites have disappeared, and many suffered damage last year due to improper tree logging. Without safe places, migration is seriously affected.
Experts insist there is time to act. Reducing the use of pesticides, protecting coastal forests, and planting native flora are essential measures.
Emma Pelton from Xerces highlights the importance of collective action: everyone can contribute to protecting and restoring the monarch habitat.
The official statement can be found at Western Monarch Count, and the situation of the proposed federal protection is detailed at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
