The planet’s glaciers are melting at an unprecedented rate and, in some regions, are on the verge of disappearing forever.
Between 2033 and 2041, the retreat is expected to accelerate more than ever in the Alps, while globally the peak disappearance will occur around 2055, with the loss of between 2,000 and 4,000 glaciers per year.
Warming scenarios and minimal survival
Projections made by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETH), the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), and the Free University of Brussels show that the future of glaciers depends directly on the magnitude of global warming:
- With an increase of 1.5 °C, 12% of the Alpine glaciers would survive (about 430 of the current 3,000).
- With 2 °C, only 8% would remain (approximately 270 glaciers).
- With 4 °C, barely 1% (about 20 glaciers).
In Central Europe, if the temperature rises 2.7 °C, by 2100 only 110 glaciers will remain, 3% of the total. With 4 °C, only 20 would survive.
Global impact: Andes, Rockies, and Central Asia
The vulnerability is not limited to the Alps. The study reveals massive losses in other mountain ranges:
- Rocky Mountains: of the current 18,000 glaciers, only 4,400 would survive with 1.5 °C (25%). With 4 °C, only 101 would remain (99% loss).
- Andes: 43% would survive with 1.5 °C, but with 4 °C only 950 glaciers would remain (94% loss).
- Central Asia: of the current ones, 2,500 would survive with 4 °C, a 96% decrease.
Overall, with an increase of 4 °C, only 18,000 glaciers would remain worldwide, compared to the 100,000 that would resist with 1.5 °C.
The concept of “extinction peak”
Researchers introduce the term “glacier extinction peak”, marking the moment when the number of glaciers disappearing in a single year reaches its maximum.
- With 1.5 °C, the peak would occur in 2041, with about 2,000 glaciers disappearing in one year.
- With 4 °C, the peak would arrive in 2055, with up to 4,000 glaciers lost in a single year.
Although after that peak the annual rate of disappearance may decrease, the loss will continue because most small glaciers will have already disappeared.
Environmental, social, and cultural consequences
Glaciers are not only freshwater reserves and climate regulators, they also have a cultural and spiritual significance in many communities and attract millions of visitors each year. Their disappearance will affect:
- The water supply in regions dependent on meltwater.
- Tourism in valleys and natural parks.
- Biodiversity and mountain ecosystems.
- The cultural and spiritual memory of communities linked to these landscapes.
Preserving the memory of glaciers
The ETH team participates in initiatives such as the Global Glacier Victims List, which seeks to preserve the names and stories of lost glaciers, such as the cases of Birch and Pizol.
“Each glacier is linked to a place, a story, and the people who feel its loss,” said Lander Van Tricht, lead author of the study.
The study underscores the urgency of ambitious climate action. Every tenth of a degree counts to slow the decline. As Daniel Farinotti, co-author and professor of Glaciology at ETH, stated:
“The results underscore the urgency of ambitious climate action.”
The disappearance of glaciers is a reminder that climate change is not an abstract phenomenon: it directly affects water, culture, tourism, and the lives of millions of people.
