The National Meteorological Service (SMN) anticipated that the next quarter could present different climatic conditions than usual in much of Argentina. For May, June, and July, the agency forecasts normal or above-average temperatures in the province of Buenos Aires and other central regions of the country.
Additionally, the official report also indicates a high probability of precipitation above historical values for this time of year. Consequently, various productive sectors have begun to closely monitor the evolution of forecasts, especially in agricultural and livestock areas sensitive to excess moisture.
The projected scenario comes after months marked by strong climatic contrasts in South America. While some regions faced prolonged droughts, others experienced intense storms, floods, and abrupt temperature changes associated with atmospheric and oceanic variations.
How does the SMN interpret the forecasted temperatures and precipitation?
To develop these projections, the National Meteorological Service uses a statistical system based on climatic terciles. This method divides historical records of temperature and rainfall into three categories: below normal, normal, and above normal.
In the case of temperatures, the range considered normal includes values close to the historical average, with an approximate variation of half a degree. When the marks exceed that margin, they fall into the above-normal category.
However, the agency clarified that this type of forecast does not describe specific extreme phenomena. Therefore, even though the quarter may present higher average temperatures, cold waves, intense frosts, or severe storms could still occur in short periods.
In turn, the quarterly climate forecasts are constructed through the joint analysis of international numerical models, national statistical tools, and the permanent monitoring of oceanic and atmospheric variables.
What factors can cause a warmer and rainier winter?
Various global climatic processes can influence this type of scenario. Among them is the temperature of the Atlantic Ocean, whose thermal anomaly can modify the circulation of moisture towards the continent and favor more frequent precipitation.
Additionally, variations in the equatorial Pacific continue to be crucial for the South American atmospheric dynamics. Although a strong El Niño or La Niña event is not currently dominating, oceanic conditions persist that can alter the behavior of rainfall and temperatures.
On the other hand, global warming also increases the probability of extreme climatic events and modifies historical patterns. Specialists warn that the seasons are increasingly variable, with less stable winters and more intense meteorological episodes.
Added to this is the influence of atmospheric blockages, persistent frontal systems, and masses of humid air from the north, factors that can enhance rainy periods even during the coldest months of the year.
The environmental and productive impact of intense rains
Above-normal precipitation generates both positive and negative effects on ecosystems and human activities. On one hand, they allow for the recovery of water reserves in wetlands, lagoons, and soils that have experienced dry periods.
However, excess water can also cause flooding, soil erosion, and complications in urban areas. In highly impermeable cities, intense rains increase the risk of flooding and affect the functioning of drains and watercourses.
In the rural sector, moreover, the excess moisture complicates agricultural tasks, alters production cycles, and favors the appearance of diseases in crops and livestock. Therefore, monitoring climate forecasts is key to planning adaptation strategies and sustainable management in the face of an increasingly changing climate context.
